Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/14

Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Creighton @ Providence +1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on FS1

There’s a lot of love heading Creighton’s way as the Bluejays continue to make up for their early season struggles. I think that’s why they opened as the small favorite in this game, because 8-game winning streaks are hard for the public to ignore. But the smart money has been on Providence here and I have to agree. The Friars have not lost at home all season and have won 29 of their past 30 home games overall, backing up one of the best home court advantages in the whole country.

Making them and head coach Ed Cooley a home dog is just too much for me, as they always shine in the underdog role. Creighton’s success in this winning streak has been built on home wins and visiting the weakest teams in the Big East. That is far from what they have in front of them here, and I’ll trust the wizard Ed Cooley to pull this off in a huge spot.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Missouri/Auburn Over 151 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2

Let’s start with how horrific a spot this is for Missouri off a buzzer-beater win on Tennessee’s floor Saturday night. It has let-down written all over it, but when the Tigers let you down it’s invariably the defense that doesn’t show up. Mizzou will want to play fast and take a lot of threes regardless of the situational spot, and that should play right into Auburn’s hands tonight. Their highly erratic guards play far better at home, and are due for some outside shots to start dropping against a poor shooting defense.

Even if those shots don’t drop from the outside, Auburn will absolutely eat on the offensive glass in perhaps the biggest mismatch of the game. Missouri is a terrible rebounding team and should give up plenty of points via second chances. This is also looking like a foul fest, with both teams among the top 60 most foul-prone defenses. So much time spent at the charity stripe for good free throw shooting teams is bound to boost scoring as well. Auburn needs a bounce back game after 3 straight losses, so I expect them to put a big number on a weak defense and bring Mizzou along for the ride to reach the over.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Akron @ Eastern Michigan +9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

There are plenty of smart observers who think Akron is the best team in the MAC this season, and they may be right. But the Zips are in a rut right now, having dropped two straight against teams with a lot of offensive firepower. That’s exactly what they’ll face again as they visit Eastern Michigan tonight, as the Eagles have the weapons to score on anyone. Any member of their 3-headed monster on the perimeter can go off at any time, and it has helped EMU to six straight covers.

They’re still being booked as too big of an underdog though, and too many casual observers of the MAC are pointing to the previous meeting where Akron won by 37 a month ago. But Eastern has changed since then, and it’s mostly been due to them simply starting to care. If the Eagles continue to put forth the effort they’ve shown recently, then a rematch with revenge on their minds should make them competitive on their home floor.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Boston College @ Pittsburgh -9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ACC Network

This game has blowout potential written all over it if the home team wants it and the massive matchup disparity plays out. Pittsburgh’s ascent to the top of the ACC standings can’t really be looked at as a fluke any longer since the Panthers never flinch when they have the opportunity to beat up on a bad team.

You would expect letdowns or lucky wins in those spots from a fraudulent team, but Pitt has blown out all the bad teams they’ve faced with regularity. I think they can do it again here if their outside shots are dropping, and there’s a lot of reason to believe they will. The Panthers fire from deep at the 23rd-highest rate in the country, and face a Boston College defense that’s 335th in three-point percentage defense.

The Eagles are also allowing teams to shoot 40% from deep when they go on the road, the 9th-highest percentage in the country. Saturday showed what can happen to BC when they allow an excellent shooting team to connect from deep, as NC State beat them by 30 on their own floor. That’s tough to bounce back from, and visiting the conference front-runner should bring another double-digit loss.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1085-934 ATS (+83.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.