Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Hawks/Charlotte Hornets Over 238.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SE
If the Hawks play their usual atrocious defense in this game, then this total is far too low. These are the two worst teams in the league for defensive efficiency, with the Hawks also dead last in points allowed. Atlanta is also going to be able to run here as Charlotte is more of a pace-taking team, so there should be plenty of possessions tonight.
Atlanta’s reliance on three-point shooting should also pile up the points here as the Hornets are 29th in defending the three, and Trae Young is primed to bounce back from a poor shooting performance on Monday. That should all add up to plenty of scoring on a total that’s fairly discounted by Hawks game standards.
NBA (0.5 Unit) San Antonio Spurs/Dallas Mavericks Over 242.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on Bally Sports SW
This total ticked down from the open on seeing both Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic listed on the injury report. But Doncic appears to be probable and Kyrie was able to play Tuesday, plus he will have the upcoming week off. If they both play, there’s no chance for an awful Spurs defense to contain their scoring, especially with both teams playing up-tempo. Both previous meetings went over this total with an average of 254.0 points, and with the Mavs putting it on teams lately I’m liking the chances of another over here if their stars are on the floor.
NBA (0.75 Unit) LA Lakers/Utah Jazz Over 239.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on SportsNet LA
LeBron James is expected to be out for this game, and that news has caused the total to start moving upwards. That’s not the wrong direction either, as this Lakers team that’s just 20th in offensive rating actually gets an offensive boost with James off the court. But their defense gets worse at the same time, and should struggle here in a no-rest situation where they’re traveling to altitude.
The Jazz should be able to score easily against that tired defense, especially in a bounce back situation after getting trounced on Monday night. LA is still the best road over bet in the league and these teams put up 257 points in Salt Lake City a month ago, so look for another track meet here.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Michigan St/Penn St Over 143.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 5:30 PM CT on BTN
This should be an up-tempo game and a close game, two things that tend to fuel overs in college basketball. Penn State is looking for revenge here after getting run out of East Lansing by 31 last month, and should impose their fast-paced style on this game. While Michigan State is a much slower team, they tend to get pulled into faster games on the road this year.
Unfortunately for the Nittany Lions, ramping up the tempo here just gives a Spartans offense that’s rounding into form more opportunities. This is now a top-25 offense by adjusted efficiency after a slow start, and they’re excellent at scoring inside. Penn State is just 272nd in two-point percentage defense, so look for Sparty to get plenty of easy looks inside. The Nittany Lions have not been able to defend any Big10 offense with a pulse, going 11-2 over this total in conference play, and I see another tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UConn First Half Team Total Over 40.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on CBSSN
You will literally not find a bigger mismatch in college basketball than this until the first 1 versus 16 game in the tournament next month. UConn is objectively the best team in the country, and DePaul is objectively the worst power conference squad in the country, ranked 299th at KenPom. Getting to this number requires lots of easy points, and that’s what we should see here.
It’s going to be all dunks and layups for the Huskies tonight as they love to get to the rim, while DePaul is 335th in two-point percentage defense. There are 5 Big East teams with top-75 offenses, and the Blue Demons have allowed 42.2 first half points against them this season. At 349th nationally in first half points allowed, DePaul should get rolled early again here by a UConn team wanting to get this over with before a huge game on Saturday.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2046-1849 ATS (+95.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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