Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/13

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Utah Jazz/Indiana Pacers Over 237 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports IN

That early season success for Utah has evaporated quickly as the Jazz find themselves trending towards the lottery. The main culprit has been the defense, with Utah tumbling to 26th in defensive efficiency, including on the road. But their surprising offense has had no trouble, and is actually the most efficient offense in the NBA on the road. That’s made them a great over bet in away games, 19-9 to the over which is second-best in the league.

Matching them up here against an Indiana team with similar defensive issues should add to that over record. The Pacers have allowed 118.7 PPG their past 10 games, and a semi-stagnant offense should pick it up against the bad Jazz defense. Both teams love to shoot threes and both struggle to defend beyond the arc, so that should pad scoring. Add in that they combined for 258 points in the previous meeting this season on a higher posted total, and I see this one getting over relatively easily.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Orlando Magic +5 @ Chicago Bulls (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on NBCS-Chicago

The best bet as an underdog this season is the Orlando Magic, and I’m backing them again here. To be fair, the Magic are constantly booked as an underdog so their 30 ATS victories and 21 straight up victories when catching points have to be considered through that lens.

But they also have strong positive average margins against the number in just about every situational split, so it’s obvious they just aren’t being booked accurately. And the vast majority of the times Orlando doesn’t cover, they’ve faced a spread of less than a full possession. They’ve been excellent against numbers like tonight’s spread, having lost by more than this margin only 3 times the past 16 games, and I think they’re in a good spot to surprise again.

The Magic already took the Bulls down in Chicago once this season, and that was in November long before rounding into their current form. The Bulls are just 11-13 ATS as a favorite this season, and this is too many points to be giving the most prolific underdog team in the league.

NBA (0.5 Unit) New Orleans Pelicans/OKC Thunder Over 236.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports OK

Speaking of teams that are the best bet, Oklahoma City is the best home over bet in the league. It hasn’t been particularly close either, with a plus-7.9 average margin to the total in their 27 home games. This is another high number for them, but their games have been absolutely ridiculous lately. Friday’s shootout made it four straight Thunder games of at least 255 points, averaging 264.8 points.

Of course that will be factored in to this line, but I think New Orleans is a willing participant in the style needed to keep that run going. The Pelicans are the third-best over bet in road games this season, and have struggled defensively of late allowing 117.8 PPG their past 12 away from home. New Orleans can be pretty inconsistent offensively, but if OKC continues what they’ve been doing recently, then the style of game that gets created will carry this over the total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Miami/North Carolina Over 155 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

Books are catching up to the nationwide trend of efficiency-driven overs in college basketball, and the result is numbers like this total. Efficiency will need to be strong here to reach this level, but I’m not seeing much reason for it not to be.

This game features the country’s seventh-most efficient offense in the Miami Hurricanes, a team with the ability to shoot the lights out whenever they step on the court. Their guard-dominant lineup and pick-and-roll heavy offense is excellent at creating open threes, a style that North Carolina has struggled with all season.

But the Tar Heels are now perhaps the healthiest they’ve been all year, especially up front where they have an immense advantage over Miami’s small-ball lineup. The Heels should get plenty of easy buckets inside while giving up open looks on the other end, and that’s a recipe for the needed efficiency. I’ll trust the respected metrics models that say this game should see at least this many points if not getting to the 160’s and beyond.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1083-932 ATS (+83.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.