Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/13

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Sacramento Kings/Phoenix Suns Under 245.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

Going with the under when these offenses are involved can be scary, but this total has gotten a little out of control. First of all, the other three meetings this season have all gone under this number and their respective totals, averaging 227.0 points. Secondly, putting the Kings on the road has been a recipe for unders all season, as Sacramento now owns the third-worst over record and plus/minus to the total away from home.

As in past years, the elite Kings offense just doesn’t travel that well, and the Suns are a better defensive team than they get credit for. The past 10 games in the Footprint Center have gone 9-1 under this total, and all it takes with a number like this is a couple cold minutes, so look for another under tonight from these teams.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Iowa State/Cincinnati Under 136.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2

I really wish I could back my Cyclones in this one, but it’s a tough spot for them. A desperate Cincinnati squad flipped to the favorite overnight, and I’m not going against that sharp line move. Instead, I’m going with the other sharp line move in this game which has come in on the under. This matches the system I’ve been following of all the trusted metrics sites projecting a higher number, the total being posted there, and then immediately getting bet down.

I definitely understand the movement, as Iowa State likes to leave their offense in Ames fairly often, and the Bearcats are excellent defensively. Both squads have elite defenses, and both are strong against what the other offense relies on, which is scoring inside the arc. Look for a slow pace and maximum defensive effort from these teams as ISU jockeys for position in the Big12 race, while Cincy tries to stay in the bubble conversation.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) St John’s @ Providence -1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on CBSSN

This is more than likely an elimination game as both teams find themselves on the NCAA tournament bubble. But in a revenge spot for Providence at home, you have to back the Friars tonight. They lost by two at St John’s a month ago, but battled back from a horrific start in that game, and the Red Storm have been in a tailspin ever since.

It’s important to note that Rick Pitino’s crew is just 1-5 in conference road games, and this 2-6 run they’re on has seen the offense really come apart. That’s going to make it tough to go on the road against one of the best defensive teams in the country.

The Friars are 18th in two-point percentage defense, and should shut down a Red Storm offense that’s very reliant on interior scoring. Providence over the past five seasons are 24-8 ATS when their home games have a spread of 5 or less, so they know how to get it done in close games and should again tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Duquesne/Dayton First Half Under 64 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I’m still suspicious of this Dayton offense, and I’ll be making a habit of looking to their unders when they play. Especially in first halves, as the Flyers are 210th in first half scoring, and playing elite defense at 9th in first half points allowed. With Duquesne coming to town you now have two slow-paced and defensive-minded teams, requiring an incredible efficiency level to reach the over. I just don’t see that here, not with the first meeting only having 52 points at halftime and these teams being a combined 14-7 under this first half total in A10 play.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Ole Miss/Kentucky Over 161.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN

If Ole Miss brings their shooting to Rupp Arena tonight, there’s no ceiling to the scoring potential in this one. These are two teams who can go nuclear from downtown, as Kentucky is 1st and Ole Miss is 10th in the country for three-point shooting. With the Wildcats politely refusing to defend anything lately, I’m confident Ole Miss will be able to knock down shots and score more than they tend to on the road.

But the Rebels have not guarded anyone in SEC road games either, especially teams loaded with shooters like Kentucky is. The Wildcats have also lost three straight home games, something almost unheard of in their program history, so if they get an advantage tonight I’d expect them to run it up and make a statement. Getting past a total like this always comes down to efficiency though, and with two of the most efficient offenses in the country I’m confident we make it there.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) New Mexico/Nevada Under 154.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:00 PM CT on CBSSN

Usually when New Mexico plays it means points, but not this many points. Games in Reno just don’t get to this level, especially not in conference play as those Wolf Pack games are averaging just 133.6 points. New Mexico’s elite offense is reliant on two-point shooting which Nevada defends very well, and pace which Nevada should be able to control in their own building. This is also a revenge game for the Wolf Pack after getting run out by 34 in Albuquerque two weeks ago. Look for them to get their defense back on track in this one, slow down the game, and keep it under this big number.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2044-1845 ATS (+97.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.