Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/12

Locks

NFL (0.75 Unit) KC Chiefs Moneyline vs Philadelphia Eagles (+105; Odds via Caesars): 5:30 PM CT on FOX

There are just too many people on Philadelphia here, and maybe it’s my hatred of them as a Cowboys fan, but I have to go against the Eagles today. Plenty has been made about Philly having a much better roster top to bottom and I can’t really argue that. But they have a quarterback making his first Super Bowl start, and Kansas City has a quarterback that’s been here before and is the most astounding talent we’ve ever seen at the position.

We talked about it on my podcast how the Eagles have also gotten too inflated from a power-rating perspective, thriving off the league’s second-easiest schedule. Not only does that overvalue them in general, it puts them in a tough spot against a Chiefs team whose 16th-toughest schedule makes them more battle-tested. Since 2004, when teams meet in the Super Bowl with at least 10 spots separating them in the strength of schedule ranks, the team that faced a tougher schedule is 10-2 straight up.

Also likely overinflated is Philadelphia’s top pass defense by DVOA metrics, as part of that easy schedule is based on facing a long list of mediocre to bad quarterbacks. But when the Eagles faced a team with a top-15 pass offense by DVOA, they allowed 27.2 points per game. Kansas City is the best pass offense by DVOA, far and away the toughest matchup the Eagles have faced. I’ve thought the Super Bowl winner would come from the AFC all season, and now that we’re here I’m sticking to those priors and taking the underdog.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Patrick Mahomes MVP (+130; Odds via DraftKings)

This is by far the better value play if you believe, like I do, that the Chiefs win this game. There’s only a 5.3% difference in implied probability compared to the Chiefs moneyline price, yet you’re getting an extra 25 cents of juice that’s heavily correlated to the same result of the game.

I just don’t see a world in which the MVP voters, who love a good storyline and prefer quarterbacks anyway, don’t reward Mahomes with this if KC goes on to win. As a rare underdog, on a bad ankle, it’s so storybook they could honestly give it to him in a losing effort, so this is worth a sprinkle at the nice plus-juice return.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Over 8.5 Chiefs Players to Record a Reception (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Including the two playoff games, this has happened in 9 different Kansas City games on the season. There are plenty of versatile weapons on this Chiefs roster, and Andy Reid will maximize their usefulness.

A good way to look at this is that Patrick Mahomes has a passing yardage prop of 294.5 yards, yet no Chiefs player other than Travis Kelce has a receiving prop above 38 yards. That tells me even the books expect the ball to get spread around like crazy for KC, and I think just about everyone possible gets involved in the passing attack.

Double Extra Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Travis Kelce Over 7.5 Receptions (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Patrick Mahomes might be spreading it around in general, but he’ll definitely find his best friend and favorite target plenty of times. Kelce will be integral in any hope Kansas City has to win this game, and should thrive in the short middle against Philly’s pass-funnel defense. He’s essentially uncoverable on those routes, and I think he racks up plenty of short catches to get over this total.

Additional Prop Bets I’m Playing (0.25 Unit Each; Odds via DraftKings)

Kenneth Gainwell Over 11.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Jerrick McKinnon Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-130)

Isaiah Pacheco Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Devonta Smith Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

Miles Sanders Anytime TD (+115)

Miles Sanders To Lead Game In Rush Yards (+175)

Opening Kickoff Touchback – No (+125)

NFL (1 Unit) KC Chiefs/Philadelphia Eagles 1st Half Over 24.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:30 PM CT on FOX

There’s good reason why Philadelphia is 1st and Kansas City is 2nd in first-half scoring this season – the efficiency metrics for both offenses are off the charts early in games. The Eagles are also 1st and the Chiefs 2nd in first half points per drive, as well as percentage of first half drives that result in points. The Chiefs are 1st and the Eagles are 3rd in first half yards per play, so these teams are well-suited for racking up yards and points early on.

Combine that with them also being 1st and 2nd in the league for situation-neutral pace, and you have elite offenses working quickly which is the best recipe for maximizing and capitalizing on scoring opportunity. That’s why Chiefs games have averaged 26.3 points before half while Eagles games have averaged 27.7 points. And in the 5 games I alluded to above where Philly faced top-15 pass offenses, those first halves averaged 37.4 points. This game may slow down late as the stakes get higher, but I think we see a shootout before the halftime festivities.

Degenerates

National Anthem Over 122 Seconds (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

The past 15 Super Bowl national anthems are 9-5-1 to the over, although they’re just 7-8 over this number. But with Chris Stapleton and his Kentucky drawl likely to drag out words more than usual, I’ll take the over here.

Coin Flip to be Heads (-105; Odds via Fanduel)

The public is all over “tails never fails” with a ton of bets coming in on that side, so I’ll fade the public here. Heads is on a serious run of 4-1 the past 5 Super Bowls. That’s explainable by reversion to the mean since tails leads 29-27 overall, and I’ll bet on it to continue trending that way tonight.

Tiny Nick is 1078-925 ATS (+83.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.