Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/10

Locks

NBA (0.25 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Memphis Grizzlies 1st Quarter Over 58.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

I expected to see this number north of 60 points given the high full-game total, so I see some value here. Two of the three meetings this season between the Wolves and Grizzlies have seen them fly over this number in the first quarter, with the other coming up just short. And the drag on scoring that is Rudy Gobert happened to play in all three meetings, so him being in or out tonight is really a non-factor for me.

As we saw in the past two road games for Minnesota, they’re capable of either allowing a giant number in the first quarter, or putting one up themselves. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Memphis go wild early on here behind their highly-efficient offense at home and fast pace. But the Wolves offense should continue its strong rebound from the clunker in Denver, and their own fast pace should help lead to plenty of early points.

NBA (0.25 Unit) OKC Thunder/Portland Trail Blazers Over 239.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ROOT Sports NW

These teams are playing lately how I expected them to all season, and the result has been incredibly high-scoring games. While it’s tough to take the over on any total needing to go north of 240 points, this matchup has the pace and efficiency needed to get there. And you simply can’t ignore their current form, with the past 5 games each for Portland and OKC averaging 246.4 points.

It’s the lack of defense for the Blazers that explains a lot of it for them, especially at home where they have the 3rd-worst efficiency rating in the league. The Thunder have taken full advantage of bad defenses recently behind hot shooting and a very fast pace. But they’re up against a top-tier shooting team here in Portland, which should take advantage of an OKC defense seeing heavy regression from early in the season. The Thunder are the 2nd-best over bet in the league this season and Portland has the 2nd-best average margin to the total in home games, so I see a points bonanza in this late game.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1075-925 ATS (+82.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.