Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/09

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Nikola Jokic Triple-Double Yes (+115; Odds via DraftKings): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports FL

I guess the level-up for Jokic now is getting to a triple-double by halftime like he did against the Wolves on Tuesday. The man is playing this game on easy mode, and maybe felt like he needed a challenge. You can’t really blame him with 11 of them in his past 15 games, including against this Magic team last month. We’re nearing a hilarious point where this prop will require you to lay juice, but as long as it’s a plus return I’ll be betting it nightly.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Purdue 1st Half Team Total Over 37.5 (-110; Odds via FanDuel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2

This is an important bounce back spot for Purdue after losing to rival Indiana on Saturday. That tells me the Boilermakers will be looking to run it up early against a defense that should be very exploitable for their style. It’s a matchup of the number 2 and 3 teams in adjusted offensive efficiency so points should be expected, although Purdue can certainly clamp down on defense when they want to.

Iowa really can’t though, especially on the road where their 235th-rated defense gets even worse. The Hawkeyes have no interior presence to slow down Zach Edey, and will surrender a lot of second chance points as well. Iowa also doesn’t force many turnovers, which is Purdue’s one weakness and was their undoing on Saturday. Allowing an extremely efficient offense to operate exactly how it wants, highly motivated on its home floor, is the recipe needed to get over this early team total.

NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Oral Roberts -8.5 @ St Thomas (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT No TV

Don’t look now, but Oral Roberts is back to full strength and blowing teams away in the Summit League again. The Golden Eagles are rounding into form and looking like a second-weekend squad for next month, powered by that excellent offense that’s now 19th in adjusted efficiency.

Seven of their past eight conference games have seen them roll by at least this margin, including against St Thomas 4 weeks ago. While our local little-school-that-could has looked strong at times in their second D1 season, I’m just not confident enough in their defense to believe they can slow Oral Roberts down. The Tommies just don’t have the backcourt needed to force Max Abmas into a slower pace where he’s less lethal.

They’ll also have trouble slowing down the team that launches the third-most threes, as St Thomas is 268th in opponent three-point percentage. The Tommies offense has been stuck in a rut lately as well, averaging 7.4 PPG below their season average the past 7 games. Oral Roberts simply overwhelms opponents who can’t score at will, and that’s making this look like another double-digit win for them.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Houston Christian/Texas A&M-CC Over 159.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on ESPN+

The Southland Conference is hardly pretty basketball, but it usually features a fast pace and little defensive effort. That’s what I expect out of these teams once again, particularly Houston Christian who allows the 2nd-most points in the whole country and plays at the 13th-fastest tempo. Corpus Christi isn’t markedly different, as the Islanders are 275th in points allowed and play at the 28th-fastest pace.

That’s why the first meeting hit 168 points in a game where Houston Christian accidentally played some defense. The Islanders will be out for revenge for that loss, and there will be no stopping them if they decide to run up the score. That’s how I see this game playing out, and two teams who are a combined 28-13 to the over this season should find their way over this big number.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Pacific/Portland Over 154.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on WCC Network

If Portland is playing at home, I’m generally looking to bet the over. I’m a big fan of this offense, but home is where it shines the most, posting 1.124 points per possession and dropping 83 PPG. That’s helped them to a 9-3 record to the over in home games despite seeing some massive totals. This is the lowest total posted for one of their games in a month, and should be easy to get to given location and opponent.

Pacific has really struggled defensively in WCC road games, allowing 81 points per game this season. But they can really score as well, and their offensive efficiency actually rises in road games. This should also be a game featuring plenty of takes and makes from deep, as both teams are top-40 in three-point shooting but awful in defending beyond the arc. With those shots dropping and a fairly fast pace, this should be an easy over.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) San Diego/Santa Clara Over 158.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on WCC Network

Metrics sites all seem to agree that this game should be played in the 160’s for points, and I’m never going to argue that when San Diego takes the floor. A brief hiccup occurred for the Toreros last week as reintegrating big man Jaden Delaire into the lineup made them forget how to score for a half. Regardless, this team is still the best over bet in the country at 18-5 on the season, and should prove it again tonight.

Not only is San Diego 342nd in adjusted defensive efficiency, their defense is far worse on the road. Conference road games have seen them allow 83.4 PPG, and I don’t see any reason for that number to improve against a strong Santa Clara team. The Broncos have a highly-efficient offense at home, and should exploit the layup line that San Diego’s defense continually allows. If the pace is there, I see an easy path to the model projections of 160-plus points in this one.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1074-920 ATS (+85.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.