Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/08

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) San Antonio Spurs @ Toronto Raptors -10.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TSN

It’s a full-on fade of San Antonio here, as things just keep getting uglier for the lowly Spurs. Not only are they in a race to the bottom of the NBA standings, they’re arguably the worst team in the league by plenty of metrics. It’s not arguable that they have the worst defense in the league, ranked 30th in points allowed and efficiency, with massive amounts of points being given up on the road.

That’s earned them the worst average margin overall and against the spread this season, and they’re losing road games by an average of 12.7 points. San Antonio is also very banged up for this game, with a long list of key players on the injury report. The Raptors are the subject of plenty of trade speculation and this is their first game home after a long road trip. But they already beat the Spurs by 43 in the first meeting and San Antonio hasn’t kept it within single digits for 7 games, so I’ll lay the big number here.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Sacramento Kings/Houston Rockets Over 239.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on SportsNet SW

I’ll keep this one quick because it’s simply a play on how these teams have performed in their meetings so far this season. Each one has had a total lined close to tonight’s number, and each game has flown over with 250, 253, and most recently 260 points on Monday night.

I had concerns on Monday about Sacramento’s road shooting numbers potentially factoring in, but that obviously didn’t matter at all. Tonight’s game is one of those strange doubleheaders in the same city which have created drastically different results in the past. But that concern, like Monday’s, will probably look silly in hindsight as these teams combine for another scoring binge.

NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Lehigh/Colgate Under 145.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This is a game where you have to throw out the metrics and look at the results, because they’re telling different stories. The metrics tell me these are the two most talented offenses in the Patriot League, particularly Colgate who is one of the best shooting teams in the whole country. But it hasn’t shown up on the court in conference play, as they’re a combined 17-7 under this total with 5 straight for Colgate and 8 straight for Lehigh.

That includes the first meeting this season and the past 3 meetings overall, each of which was lined with a total in this range. Pace is definitely going to be a factor here, as the possessions-per-game numbers for both teams have dropped considerably in league play. And Colgate has stepped up the defense as well, allowing no more than 63 points in that 5 game under run, and should disrupt the Lehigh offense that will be missing Jalin Sinclair again. This is a game that can cement the Raiders atop the Patriot standings, so I think that defensive effort continues and creates another under for these teams.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Boston College @ Virginia Tech -7 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ACC Network

This is a big revenge and motivational spot for Virginia Tech after an overtime loss at Boston College sparked their 7-game ACC losing streak. But with the Hokies back to relatively full strength and needing resume-builders for March, they should get out to a strong start in this one. Tech is no stranger to strong starts, as they’re 15th in the country for average first half margin, with a plus-10.6 average margin in home games.

Boston College by comparison is 268th in average first half margin, with a minus-4.2 average mark on the road. The Eagles are one of the lowest-scoring and poorest-shooting power conference teams in the country, and that will be a bad matchup against a VaTech team looking excellent on offense. That should allow the Hokies to run it up early in a game where style points and big margins matter for March.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) New Mexico St/Grand Canyon Over 144 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Defense has been a consistent problem for Grand Canyon lately, and the result is the Lopes now owning the second-best over record in the country. While their totals haven’t been set at this level yet, it wouldn’t matter much as the past 6 games have gone over this particular number. I see another one brewing here against a tough matchup for their defensive woes.

New Mexico State is playing at a much faster tempo this season, ranked 56th in pace. Once GCU lost Jovan Blacksher for the season their ability to slow down opposing backcourts fell off a cliff, and I see that up-tempo style for NMSU taking advantage. But the Lopes have the offense to shoot over the top of the Aggies’ pack-line defense, which has been getting torched on the road in WAC play. Both teams also really struggle to guard without fouling, so plenty of free throws should be in store to pad scoring in another GCU game that finds its way over the total.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) San Diego St/Utah St Over 146 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on CBSSN

The Dee Glen Smith Spectrum is a bad place to bring any kind of defensive problems, and I think San Diego State finds out the hard way tonight. For a team that’s 60th nationally in defensive efficiency, location makes all the difference for the Aztecs as they’re allowing 0.160 points per possession more on the road than home. That will be bad news against the country’s 9th-rated offense that’s also the top three-point shooting team.

But SDSU experiences almost no drop-off offensively when they hit the road, so they should be able to keep pace here against an Aggies defense that’s nothing special. The Aztecs carved that defense up in the first meeting, an 85-75 win in San Diego two weeks ago. Utah State struggled from deep in that game, but returning home should boost that shooting for them. With SDSU on the road and Utah St at home this season the over is a combined 14-8, and I see the home-road splits mattering here in getting another over the total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1070-918 ATS (+84.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.