Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/08

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Utah Jazz @ Phoenix Suns -6.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on AZ Family

The Jazz have been playing really impressive basketball lately, at home. When they go out on the road, things tend to get ugly, as Utah has the NBA’s worst average margin to the point spread in road games. Look no further than the season series with the Suns, as the Jazz got buried in Phoenix but had one-possession losses in both games in Salt Lake City.

Those games came long before the Suns figured out how to play with their Big-3, so a Jazz team with the 3rd-worst road defensive efficiency mark could be in trouble here. Keep an eye on the status of Bradley Beal tonight, but a fully-staffed Suns squad should keep the road issues coming for Utah here.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Iowa/Penn State Over 161.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on BTN

There’s only one reason I’m looking to go over this big number, and that’s Iowa’s new-found approach to offense. Gone are the days when the Hawkeyes had a ton of deadly outside shooters, and lately I’ve seen them embrace that fact, especially on the road where shooting issues have usually plagued them. This team is scoring inside the arc a lot more, ranked 31st in percentage of points from two-pointers.

That happens to be Penn State’s biggest defensive weakness, as the Nittany Lions are 297th in two-point field goal defense, so I see a lot of easy buckets. Neither team has any problem getting into a track meet, so look for Iowa’s 17th-fastest adjusted tempo to dictate the style tonight. Big Ten games seem to be turning into nail-biters lately as well, so look for fouls and free throws to pad scoring late as this game gets over the big number.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Arizona @ Utah +6 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on PAC12 Network

This Arizona team is so inconsistent it’s tough to get a read on them, but I see this as a tough spot for the Wildcats no matter which version shows up. First off it’s the first leg of the elevation road trip, which is always tough in the PAC12. They’re also traveling to a very hostile environment where Utah is undefeated on the year, posting the 12th-best ATS plus/minus in the country.

The Utes also have revenge on their minds after getting run out in Tucson a month ago, but that game was a little misleading. Three-point variance swung heavily in Arizona’s favor that night, and this game should give Utah an advantage with both squads having big differences in their home/road shooting splits. With Arizona just 2-3 ATS in conference road games, I’ll back the team here that’s been dominant on their own floor.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2019-1823 ATS (+94.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.