Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/04

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Phoenix Suns First Half Team Total Over 64.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on NBA TV

Phoenix is now up to 5th in the league for first half scoring, including 2nd in road games at 61.4 points on average. This offense is finally all together, firing on all cylinders, and their first half scoring binges are a direct result. So putting them up against the league’s worst scoring defense doesn’t seem all that fair.

Washington also has the worst defensive efficiency at home, and allow the most first half points in home games at 63.5 per game. The inflated spread and total today reflect the mismatch in this game, so I’ll dig down to this derivative number and exploit what I think is the most glaring strength versus weakness in this matchup.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Kevin Durant Over 38.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Durant is heating up at the right time, going for 51 and 46 on this prop the past two games. Now he faces the league’s worst defense for a game in his home town, and that’s a combination of factors I just can’t pass up.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Toronto Raptors @ OKC Thunder -2.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports OK

This is a really cheap number for the Thunder given their consistent success to start games. OKC is 3rd in the NBA for average first quarter margin, including 2nd-best in home games at plus-4.2 points. And when they’re at home against a team with a losing record, the Thunder are 8-4 against today’s number with an average plus-6.8 first quarter margin. Toronto is continuing to fall off a cliff after trading away their stars, and they’re 24th in average first quarter margin this season including 26th on the road at minus-3.3 points. This number looks very discounted from my perspective, so I’m backing this OKC team to keep starting hot.

NBA (1 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks/Utah Jazz Over 246.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports WI

The Bucks are in a back-to-back spot here after a high-possessions game in Dallas last night. That fact alone should be enough to back the over in this game as Milwaukee is 6-1 to the over on no rest, with the league’s highest plus/minus to the total at plus-14.2 points.

Now they have to travel to altitude to face a Jazz team that plays to the 4th-most possessions in home games, which I’m sure the Bucks won’t mind as they’re 3rd in overall pace. Both teams are really struggling on the defensive end, so look for a fast tempo and tired Bucks legs to really turn these offenses loose.

Bonus Bet (1 Unit) Utah Jazz Team Total Over 123.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

This has been the gift that keeps on giving, as Utah is 9-1 over this team total in their past 10 home games. Their offense is far more efficient at home, and should be able to exploit the tired Bucks who will also be without rim-protector Brook Lopez tonight. The Jazz can’t stop much of anything though, so they should be forced by an elite Milwaukee offense to continue scoring, and get over this number as a result.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Providence +4.5 @ Villanova (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on FS1

This number hasn’t moved one bit from the open which is kind of surprising, but I think it’s just a touch too big. This feels like more of a one-possession kind of game to me, especially with Villanova in a desperation spot after five straight conference losses. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Providence made it six straight since I’ve never trusted Nova after watching them struggle offensively early this season.

That struggling offense goes up against one of the best defenses in the country today, as Providence is 8th in both adjusted defensive efficiency and opponent effective field goal rate. The Friars have the wing defenders to slow down a Villanova team that’s overly reliant on three’s, while scoring inside against a weaker Wildcats front line. Providence has been flying under the radar since Bryce Hopkins was lost for the year, but this team has a ton of fight and will be in this one to the end.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Nebraska @ Illinois -9.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 5:30 PM CT on BTN

This is just a really difficult situational spot for Nebraska to be in. Their second massive home upset of a top Big10 team on Thursday puts them in a serious letdown spot today, especially on the road where they’ve struggled. The Huskers are 0-5 both straight up and ATS in conference road games, with 4 of those losses by double digits.

Look no further than Nebraska’s last court-storm win over Purdue, which was followed up by an 18-point blowout at Iowa three days later. Illinois has had their ups and downs this season, but they’re far superior overall and on offense where they’re 5th nationally in adjusted efficiency. Nebraska’s offensive metrics dip drastically on the road, so the Illini should be able to easily pull away from a team in a rough situational spot.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2015-1811 ATS (+100.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.