Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/02

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) LA Clippers First Half Team Total Over 64.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports Detroit

I’m going back to the well on this one after the Clippers cashed the same bet with relative ease on Wednesday night. That was against an awful defense in Washington, and tonight it could theoretically get easier against a Pistons team that’s worse than the Wizards in defensive efficiency. It should definitely get easier for the Clippers since they’ll have Paul George for this game after he sat out on Wednesday. Detroit will also have Cade Cunningham tonight whose scoring will help push LA’s higher to some degree, but as usual I think the Clips stomp another bad team with an early scoring binge.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Phoenix Suns/Atlanta Hawks Over 248.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on Peachtree TV

This is really pushing the limit of how high I’m willing to go on an NBA total, but these teams justify the number. The biggest factor for me is that Atlanta appears to be back to their old ways after a couple weeks of the offense falling off a cliff. But their past four games have averaged 262.0 points, and this number might actually be discounted thanks to that weird stretch of games.

With the Hawks back to their usual up-tempo style, that should accelerate this Suns offense that is finally living up to what everyone expected. Phoenix is finally shooting at a high level, ranking top-5 in most shooting metrics now, and should shred an awful Hawks defense. I look no further than last Friday when the Suns visited another incredibly fast-paced team in Indiana, creating a 264-point track meet. All the star players in this matchup should be available and shining tonight, so there’s really no choice but to look over on this monster number.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Ohio State @ Iowa -4.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on FS1

Winning on the road in the Big10 is exceedingly difficult, just ask Wisconsin. And that’s for a good team, so an Ohio State squad that is falling apart lately should be in trouble today. The Buckeyes are 0-5 straight up and ATS in their conference road games, with the past two not being close at all. They have a lot of trouble defensively on the road, and that’s a bad problem to have when traveling to Iowa.

The Hawkeyes are still an elite offensive team, ranked 18th in adjusted efficiency and playing their usual up-tempo style that can bury opponents in a hurry. Those runs are far more common at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, and I think they’ll happen tonight against the struggling Buckeye defense. Iowa should be happy to be back home tonight after a tough loss at Indiana, so below the fairly key number of 5 points I like them to continue OSU’s road woes.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Dartmouth Team Total Under 70.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

The only reason this team total is so high is it has to account for the full-game number with Cornell’s elite offense on the other side. The concern becomes Cornell scoring so much that they drag Dartmouth up with them, but I’m not convinced that this pitiful offense can have success even in that game script.

Dartmouth’s other meeting with an elite Ivy offense from Princeton saw them only get to 58 points, and the Big Green are only averaging 58.8 PPG in conference play. This is the 3rd-worst scoring offense in the country and the 353rd by adjusted offensive efficiency, with a 13-2 record under this team total. I’m not overthinking it, Dartmouth simply can’t score and shouldn’t tonight.

Degenerates

NBA Orlando Magic/Minnesota Timberwolves First Half Under 108.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

My immediate thought when looking ahead to this matchup was that the under was in play. But a full-game total of 211.5 in today’s NBA is tough to go under on, even if these are two elite defensive teams. The Wolves are first and the Magic are fourth in defensive rating this season, and it showed in their first meeting that only got to 205 points. The first half of that game was actually the higher-scoring half, and still only got to 104 points. With this number skewed a little too heavily towards first half scoring, I’ll take a shot that these teams get off to another slow start.

Tiny Nick is 2009-1806 ATS (+99.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.