Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/31

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Charlotte Hornets @ Milwaukee Bucks -4 First Quarter (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports WI

This play comes with some betting PTSD because I was on Milwaukee in the first quarter the last time they hosted the Hornets. It was quite the black swan event as Charlotte tied an NBA record with 51 points in the first quarter and never looked back. I’m willing to bet that doesn’t happen again for the team who scores the second-fewest points in first quarters this season.

I’m also willing to bet that Milwaukee hasn’t forgotten that game from just over 3 weeks ago, and will be extra motivated to make sure they atone for it tonight. I’m enjoying taking advantage of this stretch of weaker opponents the Bucks have now that Khris Middleton has returned to the lineup, and will continue backing them. Even against poor teams like Charlotte, the derivative quarter lines don’t move much and can’t get too inflated, and I think we see Milwaukee run it up early to easily cover this number.

NBA (0.25 Unit) Nikola Jokic Triple-Double Yes (+155; Odds via DraftKings): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

Nikola Jokic has been slipping lately, particularly in the distributing department since his 9.9 assists per game is the only thing keeping him from averaging a triple-double this season. All jokes about The Joker aside, this is still maybe the hottest statistical run we’ve ever seen in the NBA and I expect it to continue tonight. Returning home will be a big boost, as Jokic is one single assist shy of posting a triple-double in the past 8 home games where he’s played normal minutes.

Coincidentally, he’s also one dime short of a triple-double in both meetings with the Pelicans this season. He put 25-11-10 on New Orleans a week ago in a game that didn’t even get to 200 points, and tonight’s meeting should have even more opportunity for stat-stuffing with Denver being the 2nd-most efficient offense at home. With TNT in the house, I expect Jokic to do what’s become routine and go off again.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Virginia Tech/Miami Over 142.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPNU

I think there’s some element of discounting Virginia Tech’s offensive capabilities with their 7-game slide still fresh. But the biggest factor in that losing streak was the absence of Hunter Cattoor and how he opens up this Hokies offense. Cattoor’s return has seen Tech waste no time in getting back on track offensively, with the senior guard making big contributions from 3-point land. I think they continue that success here against a Miami team that’s just 110th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

But the Hurricanes are also one of the best offenses in the country, ranked 16th in per-possession scoring, 12th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and tend to shoot lights out at home. This should also be a close game, with VaTech fairly desperate to create a favorable tournament resume, and that should lead to late scoring from fouls. I don’t think the offensive potential for either team has been factored in here enough, and I see that creating enough scoring to get over this moderate total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Nebraska @ Illinois -14 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on BTN

Illinois just refuses to live up to its potential as a team this season, but I think we see the best version of the Illini in this soft matchup for them. They can’t afford not to thrash a terrible opponent like Nebraska, and to their credit, the Illini have taken advantage of weak teams this season. That includes a 26-point beat down of the Cornhuskers on the road 3 weeks ago, which came before Nebraska was truly hit hard by injuries.

The Huskers were never a deep team to begin with, and the amount of minutes their bench players are getting due to injuries right now is incredible. That’s the biggest reason for 3 consecutive double-digit losses, but let’s remember this team was never good on the road. They still haven’t covered a road game since early December, with a minus-5.5 average ATS margin. Illinois’ defense is excellent, ranked 7th in efficiency, and should shut down the country’s 322nd-rated offense in a blowout win.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Ball St/Bowling Green Over 152.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

There isn’t much defense in the MAC this season, but it’s important to pay attention to the haves and have-nots when it comes to offense because there’s a wide gap. These are two teams you’d have to consider as more than capable of scoring, with offensive ratings of 52nd for Ball State and 74th for Bowling Green. And with defensive efficiency ranks of 233rd and 309th, respectively, the ingredients are there for plenty of points.

I’m looking for Bowling Green to be the pace-setter in this matchup on their home floor, which is a positive as the Falcons are 45th in tempo this season. That will give Ball State’s 3-point shooting more opportunity against a very poor perimeter defense. That defense has allowed 90-plus in 3 MAC games already, with an average of 163.3 total points in conference games. Ball State has the offense and a poor enough defense to create another high-scoring game here, so I’m on the over in this one.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) San Diego St/Nevada Over 137.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:00 PM CT on CBSSN

The home/road splits for these teams on offense and defense are really fascinating, and I think it spells over on this fairly low total. San Diego State is traditionally known for defense, but this season has seen them develop an offense that’s 34th in adjusted efficiency. The Aztecs score exactly as many points-per-possession at home as they do on the road, so no drop-off should be expected from them. But their defense plummets away from home, allowing 0.137 points more on a per-possession basis.

As for Nevada, they have almost the exact same defensive efficiency numbers at home and away, but their offense lights it up in Reno. The Wolfpack average 1.117 points per possession at home, and should take advantage of that weaker Aztec defense. When SDSU is on the road and Nevada is home in MWC play, they’re a combined 7-1 over this total. And it’s the exact same number that was posted for their meeting in San Diego three weeks ago, which they managed to clear. Factoring in the location and the difference it seems to make, I see this as a comfortable over.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1055-901 ATS (+88.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.