Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/29

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves @ OKC Thunder -0.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

Calm down Wolves fans, I’m not necessarily calling for them to lose tonight, just for them to struggle in the opening quarter again. Although with Mike Conley likely to miss another game here, it makes things tough on their offense that’s not exactly firing on all cylinders right now. That’s what I think gives OKC their biggest advantage tonight, and they should use it to jump out to a solid lead.

As part of their 2-1 lead in the season series, the Thunder have dominated the Wolves in the opening quarter, winning all three by an average of 7.0 points. That’s just business as usual for the Thunder, who have the third-highest average first quarter margin in the NBA, both overall and at home. It’s fueled by them scoring the second-most points in opening quarters, so against a struggling Wolves offense I’ll lay this short number for them to start strong again.

NBA (1 Unit) New Orleans Pelicans @ Boston Celtics -2.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on NBCS-Boston

Speaking of teams who are good bets in the first quarter, Boston is the NBA’s best. The Celtics lead the league in average first quarter margin at plus-4.7 points, which is 1.8 ahead of the next best team so they’re elite to start games. I think it’s more about the situation here for me though, as Boston is fresh off only their second home loss of the season, in embarrassing fashion no less. I don’t think they’ll take getting run out by the Clippers on Saturday well, and should look to make a bounce back statement here. The Pelicans are a good first quarter team themselves, but have struggled when on the road against good teams. Look for Boston to get back on track here, at least in the first 12 minutes.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Houston/Texas Over 129.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN

Yes, Houston has an elite defense, ranked first in efficiency as a matter of fact, but that doesn’t make this total unreachable. What it does is lower the number out of respect for that defense, but I don’t know that it will travel that well today. We’ve already seen Houston go over this total in 2 of their 3 conference road games, with the only under coming against Iowa State’s third-best defense.

Texas is nowhere near that level, ranked 73rd in adjusted defensive efficiency and struggling to contain good shooting teams. That’s why the Longhorns are 7-0 over this total in Big12 play, and 17-3 over it on the season. I just think this number gives too much credit to a Cougars defense that allows 14.3 PPG and 0.25 points per possession more on the road. So with KenPom projecting 132 points tonight, I’ll take the over in what should be a great game.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2004-1802 ATS (+95.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.