Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/26

Locks

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) LA Clippers Team Total Over 122.5 (-110; Odds via PointsBet): 9:30 PM CT on Bally Sports SC

The biggest factor for me here is targeting the worst defense in the league on no rest. The Spurs are dead last in points allowed, defensive efficiency, opponent shooting, and just about any other defensive metric you can think of. Those numbers get even worse on the road, including allowing 124.0 points per road game. San Antonio also just played the Lakers last night, so they’re on no rest. That’s a situational spot this season where they have the 5th-highest average margin to the total, so plenty of points should be expected.

And this Clippers team should be primed to take advantage of that tired and awful defense once again. Just last week they put 131 points on the Spurs in San Antonio, on a night where the Spurs had plenty of rest. The Clippers offense seems to be rounding into form with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George returning to full strength, and should have no trouble against a defense allowing 125.6 PPG since the start of January.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Stetson/Liberty Over 134.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

It’s not often you see a Liberty total get bet up by smart money, but they definitely have this one right. Liberty definitely trends to the under in general behind a fantastic defense and slow tempo, but this game should be all about shot-making. These are two of the best shooting teams in the country, with offensive ratings of 7th for Stetson and 16th for Liberty. That and a defensive rating of 335th for Stetson is the reason for Hatters games going 13-4 to the over this season.

And both defenses struggle against what these teams love to do offensively, which is fire away from deep. Both schools are top-15 in 3-point attempts and 3-point shooting percentage, numbers that are likely to improve tonight against defenses that are 211th and 274th in 3-point percentage allowed. This game won’t be up-tempo, but shots should be falling for both teams and that will carry this one over the total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Grand Canyon/Abilene Christian Over 138.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars) 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Grand Canyon games are starting to get booked with higher totals as the Lopes continue to struggle defensively. But from what I’ve seen out of them their games should be in the 140’s, and that gives this total some value, especially against Abilene’s style and defense. The Wildcats have not been good defensively this season, just 255th in efficiency, and a GCU team that can score in bunches should take advantage.

That will definitely be the case if Abilene dictates an up-tempo game on their home floor, and can exploit a Lopes defense that’s had its biggest issues on the road. Overall though, the number just can’t get high enough for GCU games, with their past 11 all cashing the over. And in WAC play, these teams are a combined 11-3 over tonight’s total. If the defensive woes for both teams show up again, they’ll find their way over this number with ease.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UCLA @ USC +5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2

This seems like a spot where UCLA might bounce back off their tough loss at Arizona over the weekend. But that loss exposed some weaknesses of the Bruins, who are still being priced as the team that reeled off 14 straight wins.

Laying multiple possessions on the road in the Pac12 is a tough task for any team, and this rematch of the cross-town rivalry seems like it should come right down to the wire. Let’s not forget these teams played 3 weeks ago at the height of UCLA’s hot streak, and the Bruins needed a go-ahead three in the final 20 seconds to squeak out a 2-point win.

USC will be out for revenge, and are finally looking like a team rounding into form as Drew Peterson is making everything. An unbalanced schedule with lots of road games to start Pac12 play has been tough on the Trojans, but they’ve been unbeatable at home. I see this as another one-possession game with USC being a live dog, so I’ll take the points with the home squad.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Houston Christian/NW State Over 152.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Houston Christian has been playing with their hair on fire all season, and when they find a willing partner, their games fly over the total. What’s usually needed is a team unafraid to run it up on their defense that’s allowing the most points in the country on a per-possession basis. Northwestern State is a great fit for that, as they have a strong offense and are no stranger to blowing out the weakest Southland opponents.

The Demons are very efficient offensively on their home floor, so if Houston Christian and their 13th-fastest tempo in the country creates more possessions, it will really fuel scoring. Especially if NW State is firing threes like they usually do, as the Huskies are 335th in 3-point percentage defense. But the Demons don’t exactly offer much defensively themselves, and a Huskies offense that’s heating up should take advantage. These teams are no stranger to shootouts, with the past 5 meetings averaging 171.8 points, so look for another high-scoring game tonight.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) San Diego/Pepperdine Over 161 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on WCC Network

San Diego games are an automatic over bet for me at this point, and Pepperdine games are quickly becoming that way too. Once again I’m surprised to see a total for the Toreros this low, as the style Steve Lavin has created for this team looks more like the NBA and encourages exactly zero defense. San Diego is now 354th in points allowed and 346th in defensive efficiency on the season, with a 14-4 record to the over as a result.

This rematch against Pepperdine, another of the absolute worst defensive teams in the country, should be another shootout. The Waves and Toreros played just two weeks ago to 181 total points, and you could argue that both defenses have gotten worse since. Pepperdine also plays at the 10th-fastest pace in the country, and will do nothing but cruise through the forgiving San Diego defense for easy buckets. This is an excellent pairing of two teams that just want to run, and the result will be over tickets cashing again.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UC Santa Barbara @ Hawaii -1 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 11:00 PM CT on ESPN+

If you’re an insomniac, degenerate, or both, this is a great game to stay up for. While Santa Barbara looks like a tough team in the Big West once again, they still have to contend with this toughest of travel spots that has been challenging for them in recent seasons. Making things more difficult for the Gauchos is that Hawaii finally has a legitimate team this season to back up their usual home-court dominance.

This game will be all about defense, as the Rainbow Warriors boast one of the country’s best. They’ll need it against the Gauchos, who are one of the best overall shooting teams in the country. But UCSB’s effective field goal rate drops off a cliff in road games, they can’t shoot from outside, and Hawaii has the 16th-best 2-point percentage defense in the country. With their big home court advantage in a hyped spot, I see Hawaii leaning on defense to take care of business at this pick-em price.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1042-890 ATS (+86.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.