Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/25

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Brooklyn Nets Over 216.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on Bally Sports North

Last night’s Wolves game fell just short of the total, and that’s probably helping to hold this number down a little bit. With Minnesota in a back-to-back situation though, I think it’s advantageous to go after the over again tonight. The Wolves are 4-0 to the over on no rest this season, with a plus-14.3 average margin to the total that’s second-highest in the league. This is a Brooklyn team that’s below average in points allowed and defensive efficiency, plus there are rumors about their lack of effort. So I think a low total like this is a good one to attack with Minnesota in that no-rest situational spot.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Indiana Pacers Team Total Under 116.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports IN

It’s pretty simple to understand the Indiana offense. With Tyrese Haliburton available they’re a rocket ship, but with him out it all grinds to a halt. The Pacers star will miss another game tonight, and this team has an offensive rating of 116.0 in the games he’s out, which is 10.4 points lower than when he plays. Indiana has gone under this total in 6 of the past 8 games as Haliburton goes in and out of the lineup, averaging 114.0 PPG in that stretch.

Going up against a top-5 defensive team from Philadelphia should extend those struggles, especially since they have the wing defenders to slow down the newly-acquired Pascal Siakam. Since these teams have averaged 260.5 points in their two previous meetings the total needs to be fairly high, but that’s inflating Indiana’s number to a point where I want the under tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Saint Mary’s First Half Team Total Over 40.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:00 PM CT on CBSSN

This Saint Mary’s team was supposed to be excellent this season, finally taking the WCC crown away from Gonzaga. Early season stumbles knocked them down a peg, but since December got here they’ve been making up for lost time. The Gaels have really been excellent now that conference play has started, and are averaging 43.6 first half points against WCC opponents. And only one of their five conference games has been at home, when they dropped 56 before the break against a hapless Portland defense.

This Pacific team is far worse, especially defensively, and should get run out of Moraga from the opening tip. The Tigers are 338th in adjusted defensive efficiency, 352nd in opponent effective field goal rate, and get absolutely dominated on the glass. They’re 332nd in first half points allowed as well, so look for St Mary’s to continue making statements with another early offensive eruption here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1995-1781 ATS (+103.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.