Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/24

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Washington Wizards Over 229.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

This Wizards defense is so bad that the Wolves could get somebody to 60 or 70 points tonight if they tried. Ok, that was too soon, but the point remains that Minnesota can get whatever they want tonight. I’m expecting a much more organized offense out of the Wolves, and that should have them scoring at a high efficiency level against a team that doesn’t care about defense. The Wolves have also been letting bad teams with up-tempo styles hang around lately, so expect plenty of points from both squads to cash this over.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Charlotte Hornets/Detroit Pistons Over 234 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports Detroit

It’s interesting with this game that Charlotte dealt Terry Rozier yesterday, is expected to trade Miles Bridges any minute, so they’re shorthanded yet this total is on the rise. I guess that’s what happens when the two worst teams for defensive rating square off, as I expect minimal defensive effort. It also reflects the fact that Detroit now leads the NBA for the best over record at 26-16-1 with the second-highest plus/minus to the total.

Detroit getting Cade Cunningham back tonight is also a big factor, as this newly up-tempo Pistons squad finally has their best scorer to plug into that system. And with more bench players getting minutes to fill in for Charlotte, expect even less defense and more of a pick-up game approach here that always leads to points.

NBA (0.75 Unit) OKC Thunder/San Antonio Spurs Over 242 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN

Whatever the Thunder were doing last night it wasn’t basketball, so I’m expecting a bounce back from this team, especially on offense. It helps to play a team that can’t guard anything, as the Spurs are bottom-5 in every defensive metric you can think of. Add in their fast pace and you can see why they’re the best home over team in the NBA with the highest plus/minus to the total.

That fast pace and poor defense should really accelerate production from the league’s best shooting team in the Thunder. And OKC having no rest should impact their own defensive ability, as they’re 5-1 to the over on the second leg of a back-to-back. With ESPN in the house to see Wemby play, expect a big night on the scoreboard from these teams.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Atlanta Hawks Team Total Under 114.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBCS-BA

It’s tough to handicap this game in general as it’s the first one back for Golden State after the death of their assistant coach. But if anything, you’d expect the Warriors to come out with a strong effort on both ends of the floor. That should help to hold down this Hawks offense once again, as they’ve been mired in an offensive funk for weeks now.

There’s no help on the way for Atlanta either as Trae Young remains out, highlighting a long injury list for this team. The Warriors being a below-average defensive team this season that trends to the over is propping the full-game total up, and therefore Atlanta’s isolated number. But until the Hawks break out of whatever this slump is, I’m going to keep taking their team unders at inflated numbers.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Samford/Furman Over 168.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Wow that’s a big number, but actually pretty attainable with these two SoCon offensive juggernauts. Pace, pace, and more pace is going to be the story of this game, as Samford comes in ranked 5th nationally in adjusted tempo. Furman has no problem playing fast with their elite backcourt, especially now that Marcus Foster is back from injury. So that pace should accelerate the scoring from Samford’s elite shooters that have the Bulldogs 8th in effective field goal rate and 3rd in three-point shooting. Every metrics site I’ve seen has this at 170 points or more, so I’ll take a shot that this game will be as exciting as advertised.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Davidson @ St Louis -1.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

St Louis has been a big disappointment so far this season, but I think this is a great time to buy low on them. The Billikens are back home after two tough losses, and most importantly have Sincere Parker back in the lineup. Parker’s ability to run the offense is a major upgrade over having to rely on Cian Medley during his absence. While St Louis has really struggled defensively, those issues won’t be as glaring against a Davidson team that really can’t shoot. Simply put though, if the Billikens are going to pick themselves up off the mat this season it starts now, and this is a good price to buy in at.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Kansas St @ Iowa St -7.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2

Finally my Cyclones don’t get relegated to the Big12 network, so maybe more people will take notice of this team that’s now up to 13th at KenPom. Two conference road losses are nothing to be ashamed of in this league, and playing in a tough road environment is something Kansas State is going to discover tonight. The Wildcats haven’t been tested that much away from home, so the Hilton Magic factor is a big plus for ISU tonight.

The raucous home crowd is probably going to exacerbate the biggest weakness for Kansas State which is turnovers, as they’re 338th nationally in taking care of the ball. That’s probably a bad sign against a Cyclones team that generates the most steals and forces the most overall turnovers in the country. This elite ISU defense should shut down an average Wildcats shooting team that also struggles from beyond the arc. The Clones are 10-1 ATS at home with a plus-10.4 average ATS margin for a reason, and they should log another strong win tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1992-1778 ATS (+102.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.