Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/23

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Portland Trail Blazers @ OKC Thunder -14 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports OKC

There are plenty of awful teams in the NBA, but when it comes to getting blown out on the road, Portland stands alone. The Blazers have the worst average margin in road games at minus-13.3, and are up against a Thunder team that has the second-best average margin in home games. OKC is also crushing as a home favorite this season, going 13-3 ATS with a plus-9.3 average ATS margin.

In the past six weeks, Portland has played nine games away from home, winning and covering just once. All the others were losses by at least 20 points, including the epic blowout they took in OKC just 12 days ago. That made it two demolitions at the hands of the Thunder this season, as the Blazers have lost by 43 and 62 points. There just isn’t going to be a line set to accurately reflect that level of disparity, and this one is looking much too short for how far apart these teams are.

NBA (1 Unit) Los Angeles Clippers Team Total Over 120.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

The Clippers offense is just too good right now, and they should showcase it here on national TV against their rivals from down the hall. The efficiency numbers the past couple weeks are off the charts, helping them to a 5-1 over record against this team total while averaging 125.0 PPG. The Lakers are just average defensively, and they’ll be without Lebron James tonight. They’ve actually been better offensively with Lebron out of the lineup, so that should help push the Clippers into more scoring and over this number.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Duke/Louisville Over 149.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ACC Network

The problem for this Duke team always seemed like it would be defensively, and those issues are showing up in recent games. The Blue Devils have allowed 79 and 80 points in consecutive games to very middling offenses, at home no less. Taking those problems with them on the road is a cause for concern, especially against a Louisville team that is just feisty. I’m not interested in laying a big number with Duke for that reason, but I think we see plenty of points.

Duke should be in a bad mood after Saturday’s home loss, and their offense is ranked 11th in adjusted efficiency and very capable of running it up on a Louisville squad that plays no defense. The Cardinals are 298th in effective field goal defense and 292nd in two-point percentage defense, so a Duke team with a big size advantage should get plenty of easy buckets. Louisville is allowing 81.6 PPG in ACC play and their past 5 have gone over this total, so expect another here against an excellent offensive opponent.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Purdue First Half Team Total Over 41.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Peacock

Purdue is just an offensive juggernaut, and they love to step on the gas early in games. The Boilermakers are 7th nationally in first half scoring, and are putting up 45.6 first half points per game at home this season. In the first half of conference games they’re averaging 44.9 overall, and their three Big10 home games have seen them drop 45, 47, and 56 points before halftime.

I’m seeing another early eruption from this offense that’s second nationally in adjusted efficiency. Michigan does not play defense at a high level, and tends to allow a lot of points inside. That’s where they have a big size problem against Zach Edey, who should rack up plenty of easy buckets. The elite Purdue shooters should also knock down plenty of three’s against a Wolverines defense that’s 197th in opponent three-point percentage, adding up to enough early points to clear this total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1989-1777 ATS (+101.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.