Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/22

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves Team Total Over 117.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

The Wolves have not seemed pleased with how Saturday’s loss to the Thunder played out, nor should they be. A good cure for that frustration is taking it out on this Charlotte team that has trouble guarding anything. The Hornets are 29th in defensive efficiency overall and dead last for road games, so if the Wolves want to run it up they can.

The first meeting between these teams saw absences from both Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball, but the Wolves dropped 123 points in a 240-point game. Both teams’ stars playing tonight raises the scoring floor, so I see Minnesota bouncing back with a big night offensively.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks Team Total Over 130.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports WI

Let’s call it what it is, the Pistons just aren’t playing defense right now. Having four wins on the year will do that, and their newly-adopted style of playing more up-tempo with volume three-point shooting fuels scoring overall. Detroit has the worst defensive efficiency mark in the league, and they’re up against the best offensive efficiency team here.

Milwaukee has no concerns about playing at a fast pace, and Detroit is actually bad at shooting three’s so that creates run-outs for a team that loves to get out in transition. The Bucks just dropped 141 on Saturday against this Pistons squad and are averaging 135.7 against them this season, so I’ll back the league’s highest-scoring road team to light it up again tonight.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Hawks Team Total Under 114.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBA TV

I think the total is too high in this game overall, but that big number just brings Atlanta’s isolated total much too high. The Hawks were already struggling offensively coming into this game, averaging just 109.4 PPG the past 8 games. Only once in that stretch have they gone over this number, and that was in overtime.

Now they’re down Trae Young tonight who will sit out with a concussion, severely hampering their offensive capabilities. Sacramento is nothing close to a great defensive team, but Atlanta has had these scoring problems against some of the worst teams in the league including the Spurs and Wizards, so the issues are definitely more self-inflicted.

These teams met just over 3 weeks ago before Atlanta’s problems really started, in Atlanta where the games fly over, yet the Hawks were held to 110 points that night. This is just too big a number for the situation and recent history, so I’ll isolate Atlanta to continue their offensive struggles.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Wake Forest/North Carolina Under 156.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

I’m going with a slight edge here that I’m seeing to the under, and it’s a play where you might have to hold your breath. These teams can score, no doubt about it, especially North Carolina who’s playing maybe the best basketball in the country. But their ability on the defensive end on the court is still being overlooked, and I think they can shine on that end again here.

UNC will have all the motivation in the world to shut down an in-state rival as Wake Forest comes to town, and the Heels have really ramped up the defense in ACC play. Their conference games are 6-1 to the under while averaging just 140.6 points, a product of their defense ranking 4th in adjusted efficiency. They’re also excellent at guarding the perimeter which is where Wake tries to do most of its scoring, so the Demon Deacons will have trouble tonight. Most metrics sites have this projected as a few points lower than the total, so I’ll take a shot that UNC’s defense is the surprising story again.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Weber State/Montana Over 144 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I think we see plenty of points here from two teams that are having issues defensively. Weber State in particular is one of the worst shooting defenses in the country, ranked 313th in effective field goal defense and 333rd in two-point percentage allowed. Montana thrives on the inside, relying heavily on points from inside the arc, so they should be able to score efficiently tonight.

But the Grizzlies are well below average in shooting defense themselves, and Weber’s offense has finally bounced back from a brief two-game slump. In conference games these teams are a combined 7-3-1 over this total, including the first meeting that saw 156 points, so I like this to be closer to the KenPom projection of 147 tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1986-1775 ATS (+100.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.