Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Golden State Warriors/Boston Celtics 1st Quarter Over 61.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TNT
It takes a lot to get over a number like this in the first quarter of a game, but these teams are uniquely suited to get there. Boston leads the league in offensive efficiency, and loves to erupt on offense to start home games. They should have no trouble tonight against a Golden State team whose defensive woes on the road aren’t going away anytime soon.
The Warriors are 28th in defensive efficiency in away games, allow the 2nd-most points on the road, and the 4th-most points in opening quarters at 32.1 on average. You also have two of the top three scoring teams in first quarters going at it here, in front of a TNT national audience no less. The key might be 3-point shooting, as these teams are the two that launch the most from deep. If those shots are dropping and both teams push the pace, we should have another extremely high-scoring start in Boston.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Charleston/Monmouth Under 144 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on FloSports
Monmouth is monumentally bad this season, and should be a lock for the under in just about every game. With one of the country’s worst offenses, ranked 359th in scoring, 361st in efficiency, and 360th in shooting percentage, the Hawks have really fallen on hard times. They also play extremely slow at 225th in pace, and somehow score fewer points at home, where they’re unsurprisingly 6-0 to the under.
The concern here is that Charleston goes nuclear, as their offense could hang triple digits if it truly wanted to. But the Cougars have been flashing some impressive defense recently to complement their elite offense, going under this total in four straight. There’s no threat of late fouling in what will be a blowout, so I see a slow game late with Monmouth’s typical futility keeping this under the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Loyola Marymount/Gonzaga 1st Half Over 75 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on WCC Network
Just like clockwork, Gonzaga is starting to look like an offensive powerhouse now that WCC play has started up. It’s most evident in first halves though, with the Zags putting the pedal down early in games. That’s led them to be the nation’s 2nd-highest scoring team in the first half, and the highest in home games at 45.4 points on average. Their first halves in conference play have been ridiculous, going 4-1 over this total while averaging 84.6 points.
But Loyola is no stranger to high-scoring starts, averaging 36 points in first halves this season while allowing 34.4 to opponents. They also love the 3-ball, launching the 24th-most in the country, and should splash plenty against a Zags defense that’s 199th against the three. With Gonzaga pushing a fast pace on their home floor where they’re 25th in tempo, this should be a very high-scoring first half again at The Kennel.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) San Diego/Portland Over 160 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on WCC Network
My eyes got big when I saw this total posted so low. It’s not often you find a game that will be all gas and no brakes, but that’s essentially how both these teams play. Particularly San Diego, which has maybe the least interest in defense of any team I’ve watched all season. It should be a layup line all game long for Portland here, whose offense is rounding into form with the return of forward Moses Wood.
The Pilots should be looking to take out some frustrations tonight as well after getting embarrassed by 40 at Gonzaga over the weekend. Their excellent offense will have no trouble against a Toreros defense that is 353rd in points allowed and 350th in efficiency on the road. But Portland is 302nd in defensive rating themselves, and San Diego has the scorers to take advantage. I thought for sure we’d be looking at a total closer to 170 in this one, and I still would’ve made a case for the over.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1027-877 ATS (+84.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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