Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/19

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) San Antonio Spurs @ Charlotte Hornets -4 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SE

Let’s not pretend like either of these teams is any good, but Charlotte has a clear advantage tonight. This is their first home game since LaMelo Ball returned from injury, and I expect them to look much better as he slowly ramps up his involvement. It’s a revenge game for the Hornets as well after the Spurs blew them out in San Antonio last Friday night. But the key is that Victor Wembanyama played in that game and had a big night, but he’ll be out for rest tonight. When their star doesn’t play, this Spurs team is 0-5 with a minus-14.8 average margin, so I see Charlotte taking advantage tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Indiana @ Wisconsin -10.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on FS1

This is a big bounce back spot for Wisconsin after a rough loss on Tuesday, and I think they make the most of it against a weaker opponent. Laying big numbers with the Badgers hasn’t historically been the best idea, but this team is much more loaded with offensive talent than they’ve been in a long time. That helps to run up the score when they have the advantage, which they definitely do tonight.

Wisconsin’s shooters should knock down plenty of open perimeter looks tonight against an Indiana defense that is 305th in opponent three-point attempt rate. The Hoosiers have already struggled in conference play against volume three-point shooting teams, including getting run out on their home floor by Purdue this week. Going on the road in the Big10 is always rough, especially to a raucous Kohl Center, so look for the Badgers to make a statement tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UNLV/Colorado State Over 144 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:30 PM CT on FS1

This total has come down a couple points, but that just puts it in a better range for hitting the over in my opinion. I think the reason for the move is these teams being fairly slow-paced, but I’m seeing hyper-efficient offense racking up the points against suspect defenses. Colorado State’s offense is too talented to stay in this current funk, and their elite two-point shooting that’s 5th nationally should have success against UNLV’s average defense.

But the Rebels want to get the ball inside with Rob Whaley and Kalib Boone, two players who can bully the undersized CSU frontcourt. The Rams struggled with just that against Utah State a couple weeks ago, seeing the game reach 149 points. So with both teams primed for success offensively, highly effective possessions should get this closer to the KenPom projection of 148 points.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1956-1746 ATS (+100.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.