Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/20

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Indiana Pacers/Denver Nuggets Over 240 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Altitude2

The brief hype surrounding the Indiana Pacers has certainly hit a rough patch, and it’s largely the defense that’s to blame. They’ve surrendered 124 PPG in this 5-game losing streak, and now have to face arguably the league’s best offense, on the road and at elevation. Denver is the top shooting and most efficient offense in the league, so they should have no problem continuing to produce at a high level against a bottom-tier defensive squad.

But the Nuggets aren’t exactly putting a lot of emphasis on defense themselves, ranking in the bottom half of the league for most statistical categories. Indiana will want to continue to play fast and shoot a lot of threes, and that style should help over conditions with Denver’s hyper-efficient scoring ability. These teams hit 241 points in the first meeting with both squads shooting a little below their averages, so any positive regression will help boost tonight’s game over the number.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Nikola Jokic Over 48 Points+Assists+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Another big reason to believe positive scoring regression is coming in this game is that Jokic spent most of the first meeting on the bench with foul trouble. The Joker couldn’t stay on the floor for most of the first three quarters, logging only 21 minutes total. But once he returned, the Pacers had no answer for him as he still managed 34 on this prop. Given a full game to produce, the man who has 5 triple-doubles in his past 6 games while averaging 49.3 on this prop should erupt again.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Toledo/Buffalo 1st Half Over 79 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:30 PM CT on CBSSN

I’ll be watching this game for the pure entertainment value of another all-gas-no-brakes affair. A game between teams like this has basically unlimited scoring potential as long as shots are dropping. I’m focusing on the first half though because Toledo has dominated this matchup the past couple seasons, and a wide margin late means less scoring. But pace and minimal interest in defense should be the keys to getting over this halftime total.

Buffalo is still playing at the fastest tempo in the country, and Toledo isn’t far behind at 33rd nationally. Toledo’s defense that’s rated 328th in the country will surrender points to anyone, but their offense that’s 4th in efficiency simply doesn’t care. And Buffalo’s defense can’t guard without fouling, committing the 14th-most fouls per game. That will help get these teams in the bonus early, padding scoring before half. When these teams have faced other up-tempo opponents with poor defenses the first halves have been electric, and putting them together should produce another.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1029-879 ATS (+84.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.