Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/18

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Denver Nuggets Over 236.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN

Whether or not this game gets over a total this high likely depends most on whether or not Rudy Gobert plays for the Wolves. Without him on the floor to clog the lane, both Minnesota’s offense and their opponent’s offense seem to benefit from a scoring standpoint. And against a team like Denver, not having rim protection will allow Nikola Jokic to run wild. These teams hit 235 points just two weeks ago with Gobert in the lineup, so his absence should be the push needed to get over this higher total.

But from a numbers standpoint, this matchup has all the makings of a high-scoring affair. It’s the NBA’s best shooting team in the Nuggets against the 3rd-best shooting team in the Wolves, with Minnesota’s fast pace increasing scoring opportunity. Denver also finds themselves on a back-to-back here after a high-possessions game last night, so their 20th-rated defense will be even less engaged. It’s also a national TV game which have trended higher-scoring, so I see plenty of reason to back the over tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Saint Louis -5.5 @ Loyola Chicago (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on CBSSN

There’s still some brand-name bias in lines for this Loyola team despite the departure of Porter Moser, so many of his recruits graduating, and the program itself graduating conferences to the A10. The drop-off could not be more drastic, and it doesn’t seem like odds makers have caught up to just how bad this team is. Loyola has the sad distinction of owning the country’s worst average margin against the spread, along with the 3rd-worst cover percentage.

Now they get another of the top-tier teams in the league with Saint Louis, and the Billikens should further their woes. Saint Louis has one of the better offenses in the country, and will be able to exploit a Ramblers team that’s no longer known for defense as they’re down to 274th in defensive efficiency. But Loyola simply can’t score either, rated 288th in offense, and just won’t keep up with the Billikens. The Ramblers have been run out in every conference game so far, falling by at least double digits and owning a ridiculous minus-16.8 average ATS margin, and I don’t see tonight being any different.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Arkansas @ Missouri -0.5 First Half (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 8:00 PM CT on SEC Network

This is a revenge game for Missouri after blowing a 17-point lead at Arkansas two weeks ago. Notably, that game saw the Tigers leading by 7 at halftime, and they should jump out to a quick start again tonight. Mizzou desperately needs this game, and are definitely happy to be back home after some tough road losses. That’s where they’ve been dominant all season against top competition, and it usually starts early.

The Tigers are 5th nationally in first-half scoring at home, helping them to a plus-8.8 average margin at halftime. Conversely, Arkansas struggles with scoring on the road, and their strong defense weakens as well. The absences of Nick Smith and Trevon Brazile are really being felt for the Razorbacks, and this is a spot where they’ll miss the instant offense the duo provided. If Mizzou can knock down threes and force turnovers like they usually do at home, they should hold a solid lead by the break.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1025-876 ATS (+84.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.