Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Nikola Jokic Over 46.5 Points+Assists+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 8:00 PM CT on Altitude
While this might be a high total, the matchup for Denver’s walking triple-double is very favorable here. Portland gets torched by centers, allowing the 3rd-most points and 4th-most assists to the position of any team in the league. That includes Jokic, who has averaged 42.3 on this prop in their meetings this season, one of which he played limited minutes in due to a blowout.
Wrist troubles have slowed Jokic down somewhat lately, but against a vulnerable Blazers defense that Denver has torched this season, I see him getting back to his usual ways. I’m also looking at The Joker to record a triple-double tonight given that he’s averaging just under a triple-double this season, and has logged 4 of them this month already. He’s come up just short against Portland in all 3 meetings, but at a +165 return, it’s worth a quarter unit play.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Bowling Green/Buffalo Over 162.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Pace is the first thing I look for when handicapping an over, and Buffalo just happens to lead the country in it. While the Bulls struggle with offensive efficiency, I don’t see that mattering much against Bowling Green. The Falcons rank 316th in points allowed, 292nd in defensive efficiency, and give up 1.105 points per possession on the road. But Buffalo is just as bad on the defensive end, ranking 352nd in points allowed and 240th in efficiency, so an up-tempo affair will naturally generate plenty of scoring.
And something just seems to be in the water when these MAC foes get together. The past 5 meetings have gone 4-1 over their respective totals and tonight’s number, while averaging 173 points. While these teams are a combined 5-3 to the over to start conference play, neither of them have faced a particularly high-flying opponent. I expect this game to bring out the usual style they’ve played, with tempo and terrible defense carrying it over the high number.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Texas @ Iowa State -2.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
It’s games like this that make me miss being at Hilton Coliseum, and I think a little Hilton Magic might help carry the Cyclones in this one. Since dismissing head coach Chris Beard, this Texas team has treaded water but could just as easily be collapsing. They only have one conference win by more than 4 points, and actually have a minus-5.4 average ATS margin in Big12 play.
If you’re having narrow escapes and falling well short of expectations in this league, then a tough Iowa State team on their home floor is not what you want to face next. The Clones are a 2-point loss at Kansas from being undefeated in the conference, and have absolutely crushed their two opponents at Hilton. And they keep blowing expectations out of the water this season, owning the 6th-best ATS margin in the country. At a short price like this, with home court against a possibly overrated team, I’ll count on ISU to keep their unexpected roll going.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UNLV/Utah State Over 149 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Mountain West Network
These teams have been strong over bets all season, and I’m seeing another tonight given the matchup here. UNLV owns the country’s 12th-best over record, while Utah State has the 18th-best, with the two schools combining for a 24-9 record to the over. And in conference play, these teams are a combined 9-1 to the over against other Mountain West opponents.
It’s been a lack of defense in conference play for UNLV, allowing 78.8 PPG, and those struggles should continue here. Utah State can absolutely light it up, especially from deep where they’re the best 3-point shooting team in the country. UNLV struggles to guard the perimeter, and has not faced anything near as potent as the Aggies are from long range. But Utah State struggles defensively as well, so this should be an offensive showcase that cashes another over for these teams.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1021-875 ATS (+82.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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