Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/17

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Orlando Magic/Atlanta Hawks Under 232.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:30 PM CT on Bally Sports SE

This total has been plummeting since the open, and with good reason. Both of these teams are in a funk, particularly offensively, and I don’t see it getting better today.

The Magic have faceplanted on offense without Franz Wagner, and several other injuries to the supporting cast have only made things worse. Orlando’s past 5 games have averaged just 206.2 PPG as a result, including the last matchup with Atlanta that only reached 227 in overtime.

What’s even more surprising though is Atlanta’s offensive struggles, scoring just 105.3 PPG the past 3 games against opponents from the bottom-5 of the league’s defensive ranks. Orlando can still defend at a high level as a top-5 defensive club, plus they’ll slow the tempo here, and that should keep this game under the total.

NBA (1 Unit) Utah Jazz Team Total Over 122.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on NBCS-BA

It’s unbelievable how hot the Jazz are right now. They’ve been burying teams behind this offense that’s gone nuclear, averaging 125.1 PPG the past 15 games. And the home games in that stretch have seen them drop 133.0 PPG, so just by pure averages this number is too low.

Tonight is Utah’s first meeting with the Warriors this year, but I don’t think the Jazz will have any trouble continuing their hot streak. Golden State has had a much worse defense on the road in recent seasons, and their past 10 games have seen opponents average 125.0 PPG, so look for Utah to keep it rolling.

Bonus Bet (1 Unit): Utah Jazz -3.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

This short number seems based more on name-brand value than actual reality. The Jazz are now the best home ATS team in the league, including 6-1 ATS as a home favorite with a plus-12.4 average ATS margin. Golden State meanwhile is simply a big disappointment, currently sitting at 12th in the Western Conference despite a soft schedule that’s seen them face 24 teams with a losing record. The Jazz are just too hot right now against all levels of competition, especially in their own building, so don’t overthink this one.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Purdue Fort Wayne Team Total Over 84.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

If you have a functional offense and IUPUI comes to town, you should be able to name your score. That’s how bad the Jaguars are defensively, ranked 358th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 359th in opponent effective field goal rate. They’re also 335th in defending beyond the arc, and Fort Wayne loves to shoot three’s, making them at the 34th-best rate in the country.

The Mastodons are returning home against a cupcake opponent after three straight losses, so I’m anticipating some frustrations will be taken out on the lowly Jaguars tonight. Offense has not been a problem for them this year, especially in Horizon play where they’re scoring 86.9 PPG. This should be a blowout of an awful IUPUI team where they cruise over this team total.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Detroit Mercy @ Robert Morris -8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

If I’m picking on IUPUI tonight, then I also have to pick on the one team that’s worse than them this season. Detroit Mercy is atrocious, there’s no other way to put it, one of only two winless teams in the country and ranked 359th at KenPom. It’s been tough for books to price just how bad the Titans are, as they’re 4-14 ATS including 3-9 on the road.

This team lost by double digits on the road to the aforementioned IUPUI trainwreck, which is really all you need to know. While Robert Morris isn’t any good and can’t defend, those issues won’t come into play much against one of the worst offenses in the country. The Colonials ran out IUPUI by 44 points two weeks ago, so they have experience blowing out awful teams and I think they do it again here.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Texas Tech @ Houston -7 First Half (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on ESPNU

I think this is a buy-low opportunity with Houston, who despite two straight losses still has an argument to be the best team in the country. Those losses came on the road, to good teams, by a combined 5 points, so we’re not far from seeing the Cougars laying a much bigger number tonight. Kelvin Sampson is a great motivator and will have this team ready to destroy someone on their home floor.

Texas Tech is a pretty good team, but probably overvalued based on a schedule that looks weaker every day. I just think they’re walking into a buzzsaw here against a Houston team that’s the best in the country for first half margin in home games, and second-best overall. Look for the fired-up Cougars to guard the Red Raiders from the parking lot and establish a solid lead by halftime.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) USC @ Arizona -19.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN

I feel like I’ve seen this situation a zillion times the past few seasons. Arizona loses a game, almost always on the road, then they return home and absolutely crush whichever team is unfortunate enough to be next on their schedule. It’s already happened a few times this season, and a vulnerable USC team is likely to be next.

The Trojans just don’t have the offense to keep up with Isaiah Collier out, and certainly don’t have the defense to shut down a motivated Arizona team. I’m also seeing this line fly up from the opener that aligned with the KenPom number, and when that’s happened this season it’s been smart to follow the money. Arizona should be angry and motivated here, especially with ESPN in the house wanting to see Bronny James, but instead they’ll see a Wildcats blowout.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1951-1742 ATS (+99.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.