Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/16

Locks

NFL (0.75 Unit) Tom Brady Over 42.5 Pass Attempts (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:15 PM CT on ABC

Through the air is how the Buccaneers move the ball in general, and should again tonight. Tampa is dead last in the NFL for rush attempts per game, but lead the league with 44.2 pass attempts per game. And something about being at home ramps up the passing even more, as they throw it 48.9 times per game which is a full 6.3 ahead of the next most pass-happy team.

The way to attack this Dallas defense is against their banged-up secondary instead of having to go through the fearsome front seven. That should play right into the offensive game plan for Brady and the Bucs, who seem to be getting the passing game figured out lately. Before the season finale where he sat for a majority of the game, Brady had gone over this prop total in 6 straight games while averaging 48.2 attempts. No matter the game script, he should be in line for another busy night of drop-backs and attempts.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) William & Mary/Charleston 1st Half Over 68 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:00 PM CT on FloSports

This is a fairly low number for a game involving Charleston, especially with them being at home. It might reflect their relative clunker of a first half on Saturday, where they scored 10 points fewer than their home average and fell behind a very bad Elon team at the break. But that came in a flat spot for the Cougars after a big road win, so I expect them to come out a lot more sharp today.

They have an opponent in William & Mary that should allow a big bounce back performance. The Tribe are 267th in the country for first-half points allowed, and on the road have allowed 38.6 average points in first halves. A slow pace and low offensive rating for them are a little deceiving as well, with their recent games trending far higher-scoring in the first half. But I expect Charleston to do the bulk of the scoring here, and if they perform like they usually do this total is very gettable.

Degenerates

NFL Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team Total Under 21.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on ABC

A trend of 14-3 across a single NFL season is tough to come by no matter what the bet might be. That’s what we have with Tampa team totals though, with the Bucs falling short of expectations on a weekly basis. They’re also 13-4 under this particular total, so the adjustment doesn’t look like enough for tonight. With night games going under at a 16-2 clip since December started, I’m expecting a lower-scoring game in general. That should definitely apply to the Bucs in isolation, so I like them to come up short of this number again.

Tiny Nick is 1020-874 ATS (+82.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.