Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/16

Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Saint Louis @ Dayton -12.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:00 PM CT on CBSSN

Saint Louis used to be a fairly reliable program to cash tickets with, but they’ve fallen on hard times this season. It’s entirely issues on defense that are plaguing the Billikens, as they’re down to 329th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They’re likely in trouble tonight then against maybe the sneakiest good team in the country, as Dayton has been a machine on their 10-game winning streak. The Flyers are a top-10 offense by adjusted efficiency, and are the 6th-best shooting team from beyond the arc in the country. With SLU not able to guard anything, Dayton should pull away easily here and show why KenPom has this as a 17-point margin.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Dayton Team Total Over 78.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM)

The main reason KenPom has the game as such a lopsided result is he projects 83 points out of the Flyers. That’s not unreasonable at all considering all three of SLU’s opponents in A10 play have gone over this team total, and the Billikens have allowed 80.5 PPG the past 8 games. The high efficiency level from Dayton should get them over this number regardless of how the game plays out.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Iowa State +4.5 @ BYU (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I’m not sure how much more disrespect Iowa State can take this season. My Cyclones finally cracked the top-25, and now in a clash of ranked teams they can’t even make it on national TV. Oh well, that disrespect keeps them flying under the radar and produces advantageous numbers like this one.

I’m a big believer in this ISU team, and also a big believer that BYU is horribly overrated, propped up by their 309th-ranked non-conference schedule. I watched the Cougars look awful in their Big12 opener, then struggle in their next two conference games. I don’t think they’ve adjusted to the strength of this conference, and one of the league’s best should give them more trouble.

BYU is far too reliant on three’s, firing away from deep more than any team in the country. The Cyclones own the country’s second-best adjusted defensive efficiency mark, and have the perimeter defenders to frustrate BYU’s shooters like other Big12 teams have done so far. I think this is a close one down to the wire, so I’ll take more than a possession’s worth of points with the live dog Clones.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) UNLV Team Total Under 68.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on CBSSN

I haven’t seen a single metrics site project UNLV to make it over this number, and with good reason. This Boise State defense is legit, and grinds teams down all game long. The Broncos are ranked 19th in adjusted defensive efficiency this season, and force opponents into long, drawn-out possessions. Boise has only allowed 4 of their 14 D1 opponents to clear this total, and never in a home game where they’re allowing just 0.883 points per possession.

UNLV has a solid offense but they play a slow brand of basketball, so I don’t see enough possessions for them to get to this point total. The Rebels were also held to 61 points in their only other conference road game at SDSU whose defense isn’t as highly rated as Boise’s. After UNLV lost their last game in a completely crazy fashion, this is the perfect flat spot where Boise can clamp down on them.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1950-1739 ATS (+100.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.