Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/15

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills -6.5: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

Let’s establish the fact that Skylar Thompson just isn’t it. The Miami rookie quarterback will have everything stacked against him here, going into an incredibly hostile playoff environment for just his third career start. Since 2000, quarterbacks with no playoff experience going up against an experienced playoff quarterback such as Josh Allen, are just 14-35-1 ATS. That almost has me laying the full-game spread today. But being able to get under a touchdown margin with this tease is much more comfortable for a game Buffalo should control from start to finish.

New York Giants +10 @ Minnesota Vikings: 3:30 PM CT on FOX

Sorry Vikings fans, but I just don’t buy that this team can win a game by double digits. Their negative point differential this season backs me up on that. So does the first meeting between these teams that resulted in another narrow Minnesota escape, but with this rematch having the added playoff stakes to make it an even tighter game.

And the Giants are no stranger to close games either, with them and the Vikings both being in the top-5 of closest average margins this season. They’re also excellent when catching points in general, with quarterback Daniel Jones owning a 16-5 ATS record as an underdog in road games. This has exciting, one-possession game written all over it, and in that scenario, I want to be holding 10 points in my pocket with a live underdog.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals -1.5: 7:15 PM CT on NBC

I’m kicking myself for not getting a 6-point tease in on the Bengals when the spread was under a touchdown, but this should still be fine despite the line move. Once again we find extremely inexperienced quarterbacks – as Baltimore plans to play both Tyler Huntley and Anthony Brown – going up against a QB in Joe Burrow who’s been here before.

But at this number, I’m essentially just asking Cincy to get the win, and those inexperienced quarterbacks are only 16-34 straight up since 2000. And Joe Burrow just continues to get it done from an ATS perspective, going 19-4 against the number in his past 23 starts, so this teased line should be no problem for him. The Ravens are 0-4 straight up against teams with a winning record this season, so expect the Bengals to advance here against an outmatched opponent.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): New York Giants/Minnesota Vikings Over 48

These are the two worst defenses by DVOA that made it into the playoffs this season, and both are very exploitable by offenses that can attack the biggest vulnerabilities. This is the same total that was posted for these teams a few weeks ago, which they managed to clear albeit with a late flurry of points. But that’s how Vikings games tend to go, and is a big reason they have the best over record in the league with the highest plus/minus to the total as well. This is the only indoor playoff game of the weekend, and those have gone 29-17 to the over the past 20 years, so expect another today.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1019-874 ATS (+82.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.