Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/15

Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN

I just can’t back the Eagles here even though they’re the better team on paper. The defensive issues for this team have gotten out of hand down the stretch, ranking 31st in EPA/play in the second half of the year. Philly has also dropped to 21st in weighted DVOA on account of the late-season slide, and a team playing like that but priced like this makes little sense. Especially when they’re dealing with a ton of injuries including to Jalen Hurts’ throwing hand, and the absence of AJ Brown tonight.

It’s also tough to count on Baker Mayfield who doesn’t appear fully healthy right now, but an extra day to prepare for this game should help some. When clicking, this Tampa offense is fully capable of exploiting the awful Eagles defense, and being at home will help. This is also a revenge game for the Bucs from earlier in the season when both teams were in very different places. With Jalen Hurts just 6-13-1 ATS as a road favorite in his career, I’ll take the points with the home dog here.

NFL Monday Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)

1 Unit – Josh Allen Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

1 Unit – James Cook Over 14.5 Rush Attempts (-110)

0.5 Unit – Mason Rudolph Over 27.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.5 Unit – Josh Allen Anytime TD (-110)

1 Unit – Cade Otton Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Cade Otton Over 2.5 Receptions (-135)

0.75 Unit – Rachaad White Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Olamide Zaccheaus Over 1.5 Receptions (+130)

0.5 Unit – Quez Watkins Over 1.5 Receptions (-110)

0.5 Unit – Cade Otton Longest Reception Over 13.5 Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Baker Mayfield Over 236.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – D’Andre Swift Over 76.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

NBA (1 Unit) Boston Celtics/Toronto Raptors Over 242 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TSN

I’ll be on Raptors overs until they prove me wrong, and then I’ll probably come right back with another on a better number. The run is getting pretty wild now, cashing over tickets in 10 of the past 12 games and 6 of 7 since the Anunoby trade. This is Toronto’s first game home after a long road trip, which usually means they won’t be at their sharpest tonight.

That’s not good news for them against a Boston team that is leading the league in offensive efficiency. The Celtics look to be on a mission to atone for an embarrassing loss in Milwaukee last week, and just dropped 145 on a good Houston defense. If they’re in the mood to run it up, the new Toronto style will offer little resistance and should result in an over here.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Iowa Team Total Under 78.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on BTN

This will not be an easy game for the Gophers, but I think they win it on the strength of their defense. No matter the outcome, I think they’re able to slow down this Iowa offense that year after year has issues on the road. The Hawkeyes are a rocket ship at home, but their offensive efficiency drops to 1.003 points per possession on the road, the equivalent of the 210th team in the country for overall offensive efficiency.

Iowa’s biggest key this season is inside the arc as they don’t quite have the long range shooters they used to. The Hawkeyes generate 55.8% of their scoring from two-point range, 57th-most in the country. But their two-point shooting drops 8 percentage points on the road, and the Gophers happen to be 28th in two-point percentage defense. Iowa is only averaging 68.3 PPG in their 3 true road games, going under this total each time, and I think another is coming at The Barn tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1940-1734 ATS (+97.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.