Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/14

Locks

NFL (0.75 Unit): George Kittle Anytime Touchdown (+150; Odds via DraftKings)

Brock Purdy has loved throwing to great tight ends throughout his college career, and now in the earliest stages of his NFL career. He’s been forcing it to Kittle for weeks now, perhaps too much, but the results have been nothing but a boon for the 49er tight end.

Kittle has found pay dirt 7 times in the past 4 weeks, including twice in Seattle a month ago. Purdy seems to be reminding everyone how dangerous a weapon Kittle is when given the opportunity, so at this juicy return I’ll count the connection to find the end zone again today.

NFL (0.5 Unit) LA Chargers Team Total Over 24.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:15 PM CT on NBC

The Chargers not having Mike Williams available tonight puts a damper on this play, but I’m still going with it. Los Angeles showed me last week that this offense is firing on all cylinders, as the starters put up 20 points on an excellent Denver defense in just 3 quarters. I also imagine they’re out for revenge here against a Jaguars team that beat them 38-10 in one of the more surprising results from earlier this season.

If they decide to run it up, or end up in a shootout with a strong Jaguars offense, Justin Herbert and the Bolts should have an easy time throwing all over the 30th-ranked pass defense by DVOA metrics. This offense has been up and down all season thanks to injuries, but have the talent to score on anyone. In what I expect to be a fairly back-and-forth affair, LA should find their way over this isolated total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1018-873 ATS (+82.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.