Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/14

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) Dallas Cowboys Team Total Over 29.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:30 PM CT on FOX

I think there are multiple avenues to Dallas clearing this number today. The one I’m hoping for is my Cowboys dropping a no-sweat blowout on Green Bay here, as they get revenge for the Dez Catch and Mike McCarthy puts it on his old team. If the Cowboys get rolling here, don’t expect McCarthy to call off the dogs anywhere short of this point total.

But the other path is a pure shootout where these teams trade scores all game. I think both are very real possibilities, but the bottom line is Green Bay’s defense can’t stop the way Dallas prefers to attack offensively. Plus, the Packers have been torched in recent weeks by QB’s and offenses that are nowhere near this Cowboys unit. That should mean a big day for a Cowboys team that’s 7-1 over this total at home on the year.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Green Bay Packers Team Total Over 20.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

This is a smaller bet for me because the Cowboys have held visitors to Jerry World under this total in 7 of 8 games this season. But you can’t ignore how well the Packers are playing offensively right now, ranking 3rd in offensive EPA/play in the second half of the season. And the Cowboys defense has been showing cracks, ranking 27th in success rate and 19th in EPA/play since Week 12. I’ll be the first to tell you that playoff games in Dallas get weird, with 6 of the past 7 playoff visitors scoring 20-plus points, so I think this underrated Packers offense can produce.

NFL Wild Card Sunday Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)

1 Unit – CeeDee Lamb Over 98.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Jordan Love Over 35.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

1 Unit – Jordan Love Over 253.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – CeeDee Lamb 125+ Receiving Yards (+180)

0.5 Unit – Jake Ferguson Over 4.5 Receptions (+100)

0.5 Unit – Jayden Reed Over 4.5 Receptions (+120)

0.25 Unit – CeeDee Lamb 150+ Receiving Yards (+350)

0.25 Unit – Brandin Cooks Anytime TD (+190)

0.25 Unit – Dontayvion Wicks Anytime TD (+300)

0.25 Unit – Bo Melton Anytime TD (+450)

1 Unit – Matt Stafford Over 276.5 Passing Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Puca Nacua Over 83.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Cooper Kupp Over 73.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Tyler Higbee Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Kyren Williams Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Kyren Williams Under 82.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Amon-Ra St Brown Longest Reception Over 24.5 Yards (-110)

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1930-1725 ATS (+96.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.