Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/13

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) New Orleans Pelicans/Detroit Pistons Over 234 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports Detroit

A fortunate confluence of strong trends makes this look like another great spot to cash a Pistons over. Detroit has been the 2nd-best team to the over this season at 61.4%, and also has the 2nd-best average margin to the total at plus-5.1 points. But they’ve been unreal at home, going 14-5-1 to the over at Little Caesar’s Arena with the league’s top average margin as well.

That matches up perfectly with a Pelicans team that has cashed over tickets in 75% of their road games. While New Orleans is without top scoring options Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram, that hasn’t mattered on this current road trip where their games have averaged 242.3 points. They should have no trouble scoring against a Pistons defense that’s second-worst in the NBA by just about every metric, and creating another high-scoring game in Detroit.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Nikola Jokic Under 47 Points+Assists+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN

Asking the man that’s a walking triple-double to not pile up stats is a scary proposition, but this number seems a little inflated to me. While this is exactly what he’s averaged over the past 10 games, there are a couple of massive outliers propping up those numbers. And in his two games against the Clippers this season, Jokic has only managed 27 and 38 on this prop.

The Joker is also dealing with a wrist issue, so if he’s not 100% it will definitely have an impact on overall production. The Clippers are still a strong defensive team, rated 7th in the NBA, so they should continue to at least somewhat limit the two-time MVP tonight.

Degenerates

NBA Phoenix Suns/Minnesota Timberwolves 1st Quarter Over 54.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

This is about as low of a first quarter total you’ll see for a game at Target Center, and it’s worth a shot at the over. The discount is this good because of Phoenix not only missing several key players, but the Suns also being one of the lower-scoring and better defensive teams in first quarters.

That’s gone out the window recently though, with the Phoenix backups playing a different style that has led to them allowing 31.7 and scoring 28.3 first quarter points the past 3 games. With the Wolves still 4th in overall first-quarter scoring and allowing the 4th-most first quarter points in home games, this lower number is very achievable tonight.

Tiny Nick is 1018-872 ATS (+83.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.