Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/09

Locks

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) TCU/Georgia Over 63 (-110; Odds via BetMGM)

This is certainly the public play, but like everyone else, I’m having a hard time un-seeing both semifinal games light up the scoreboard. This may well be where the clock strikes midnight for TCU, but they should be able to put up a fight in this game, and that means exploiting a Georgia defense that hasn’t been as fearsome as advertised. The Horned Frogs have gotten this far on their offense being able to keep them in games and respond late, so I see that continuing here against a Bulldogs team that’s allowed 71 points in its past two games.

But it’s awfully likely that Georgia also piles on the points tonight going up against a TCU defense not built to stop what the Dawgs want to do. Georgia rolled up 533 yards last weekend against a team with the athletes to contain their two-headed tight end monster. TCU just doesn’t have that ability, and the result should be an offensive onslaught from Georgia who has scored 92 points to counter those 71 allowed in this postseason. While it might not be a back-and-forth shootout like the semis, these offenses are plenty capable of creating a game that gets over this total.

Bonus Bet (Degenerate Only): TCU Moneyline (+375; Odds via BetMGM)

Yeah, like I said, it’s probably time for TCU to turn into a pumpkin, but what if they don’t? The task for Georgia of repeating as national champions is not easy, as only 4 schools have won un-shared national titles in consecutive years since World War II ended. Another bit of history favors the Horned Frogs here, as there have only been two other times where a national title game had a spread of double digits. Those were in 2000 with Oklahoma and 2002 with Ohio State as the big underdogs, both of whom won outright. TCU has just refused to die all season, and that’s a scary thing for a Georgia team struggling defensively and fighting a lot of history tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1009-869 ATS (+80.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.