Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/07

Locks

NFL (1.3 Unit) 2-Team 6.5 Point Teaser (-130; Odds via DraftKings): 3:30 PM CT on ABC

Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 @ Las Vegas Raiders

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: Do not bet on the Chiefs at big numbers like the 9-point spread we’re seeing today. Patrick Mahomes simply does not get it done against those large spreads, especially on the road where he’s 1-8 ATS for his career laying more than a touchdown. But get him and the Chiefs under a field goal, and he’s a cash machine, going 17-6-1 ATS.

That’s where I want the Chiefs today in a spot where they’re looking to secure the AFC’s bye for next week. Regardless of how good Jarrett Stidham looked last week, KC has the offense to continually shred Las Vegas all game here and will not take them lightly after a narrow escape in October. The Raiders are strong as a home underdog, but essentially all I’m asking the Chiefs to do is get this vital win. I trust the presumptive league MVP to take care of business.

Chiefs/Raiders Over 46

I was dead wrong on Jarrett Stidham last week. He looked extremely comfortable in the Las Vegas offense, which put up a masterpiece against the NFL’s top-rated defense. Things get considerably easier for Stidham and the Raiders here against a Kansas City defense rated 23rd in overall DVOA metrics. Let’s not forget that the Raiders put up 29 points in almost upsetting the Chiefs back in Week 5, so they know how to score against this suspect defense.

But Las Vegas also had no answer for the 49ers offense last week, and now faces a far more explosive and highly motivated Chiefs team. It’s a KC squad that has averaged 36.5 points per game against them since Patrick Mahomes took over at quarterback. If the Chiefs can approach that level of production then this teased total is extremely gettable. I see Kansas City having their foot on the gas all day, and helping this game cruise past the adjusted over.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Patrick Mahomes Over 325.5 Passing Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

It would be both funny and fun if this number was posted right at 430 yards. That’s what Mahomes needs to break the NFL’s single-season passing yards record, and I think both he and the Chiefs go for it here. It’s tough to ask for a much better opponent than the unmotivated Raiders defense, a unit that’s 29th in passing yards allowed and dead last against the pass by DVOA metrics.

If this does turn into a high-scoring affair, Mahomes might need to stay in the game for the Chiefs to win a shootout. But even if KC is in control, I see them giving him a chance at history which would get him over this prop total in the process.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Delaware @ Charleston 1st Half -6.5 (-110; Odds via ): 4:00 PM CT on CBSSN

This Charleston team has been a rocket ship in first halves recently and should race to another fast start today. It’s all about scoring punch here, which gives the edge squarely to Charleston. The Cougars boast one of the country’s best and most up-tempo offenses, 24th in points and 33rd in efficiency.

That’s helped them rank 8th in first-half scoring and 7th in average first-half margin this season. Delaware by comparison is a very slow-paced team, but they will have trouble dictating style on Charleston’s home floor. The Blue Hens have an average first-half margin almost 11 points worse than Charleston, and a weak offense won’t be enough to keep up here. That’s been on display in their past two games against up-tempo teams, both at home, where they’ve trailed at the break by 15 and 17 points.

Delaware is also 310th in opponent 3-point percentage, and Charleston takes the 4th-most and makes the 11th-most from downtown in the country. With those shots falling, the Cougars should be able to build a big lead early as they’ve done all season.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+115; Odds via DraftKings)

Oklahoma @ Texas Tech (-225): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Oklahoma is actually an excellent shooting team, but they’ve struggled against teams with aggressive and athletic defenders. That describes Texas Tech perfectly, as the Red Raiders rely on elite defensive pressure at all levels. With the Sooners playing at the country’s 347th tempo, Tech won’t have to worry about transition and set their defense that’s rated 22nd in the country.

The Red Raiders should also be extremely hungry for this one after dropping their first two conference games, both of which they let leads slip away against excellent teams. The Big 12 has exactly zero easy opponents this season, but Oklahoma offers the best chance to get right of any possible team. With schematic advantages on defense and a vastly improved offense, Tech should be able to get it done here.

Oregon @ Utah (-200): 6:00 PM CT on PAC12 Network

We need to accept that Oregon is not a great team anymore despite the brand name that’s been built up over the years. The Ducks have struggled against every quality opponent they’ve faced, and now on the second leg of their elevation road trip have to contend with a surging Utah team. We also need to accept that the Utes have something going this year and will be a contender in the PAC 12, having already knocked off Arizona at home.

It’s a good matchup for Utah here, as they can continue to unleash versatile center Branden Carlson against a Ducks team that has struggled with athletic bigs. Oregon also has trouble defending the three-ball, and that’s been Utah’s signature at home where they’re shooting almost 40% from deep. Utah also owns a big rebounding edge here, so with Oregon looking rough and the Utes on the rise, I’ll trust them to continue defending home court.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1008-864 ATS (+84.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.