Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/06

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Anthony Edwards Over 37.5 Points+Assists+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 8:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

I’ll admit, we’re definitely inching closer to where this prop is no longer playable since this is the highest number Edwards has seen in a couple weeks. And it comes in a game with a total of 225.5 that’s lower than what you typically see for a Timberwolves game, so theoretical opportunity is lessened. But it’s still worth betting on Ant here to continue his incredible run, especially with extra motivation off not even cracking the top ten guards from the All-Star Game fan vote. There really isn’t much else to say besides a reminder that Edwards is now 8-2 over this number with a 42.2 average his past 10 games.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Charlotte Hornets @ Milwaukee Bucks -3.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports WI

Probable designations on Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday were all I really needed to see to get involved here. That makes this an excellent spot for Milwaukee to continue their trend of hot starts against a team that struggles early in games. The Bucks are excellent at grabbing control early when they have Giannis and Holiday in the lineup, averaging a plus-2.1 average margin in first quarters at home.

The same cannot be said for Charlotte, as the Hornets are one of the league’s worst first-quarter teams. Not only are they dead-last in the NBA for first-quarter scoring, they also allow the 5th-most points in opening quarters. That has unsurprisingly created a minus-3.7 average margin, 2nd-worst in the league, which grows to minus-4.3 in road games. Put that together with an improving and relatively healthy Bucks team, and I see Milwaukee building a big lead early tonight.

NBA (0.25 Unit) Detroit Pistons/San Antonio Spurs Over 236 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SW

This is an interesting case study in whether bad defense is more important for overs than good offense. Neither of these teams are impressive offensively, ranking in the bottom third of the NBA for scoring, offensive rating, and efficiency. But what happens when you put those offenses up against terrible defense? My theory has always been that any team can score at will against the weakest defenses, and you can’t find any weaker than these squads.

Detroit and San Antonio are the NBA’s bottom two teams in just about every defensive category. From points allowed, to defensive rating, to opponent shooting percentage, these are the two most forgiving defensive teams in the league. That’s caused their past 10 games each to go 16-4 to the over while averaging 236.8 points. Tonight’s total is lined right there for a reason, and with defense likely nonexistent here, I’ll take a shot on this turning into a shootout.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers @ Denver Nuggets -3 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Altitude

This is a tough spot for Cleveland, and one where I think they just punt the game. The Cavs have had an exhausting stretch recently with a lot of high-possession games that they aren’t used to, and now start a 5-game road trip at elevation. It’s already set that Donovan Mitchell will rest for this game, and Darius Garland does not look like he’ll go either, so a shorthanded Cavs team is likely in trouble right away tonight.

That’s going to be helped by Denver’s tendency to race to fast starts, particularly at home. The Nuggets are the league’s 2nd-highest scoring team in first halves, with a plus-6.6 average margin in home games. They absolutely destroyed a fully-healthy Clippers team last night, and should be able to repeat that here against a lot of Cleveland backups. Monitor the Denver injury report to make sure nobody important rests on the back-to-back, but this should be another early runaway for the Nuggets.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1007-861 ATS (+84.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.