Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/05

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Boston Celtics/Dallas Mavericks 1st Quarter Over 59.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

A function of Dallas Mavericks games this season has been first quarters that erupt with scoring. Certainly compared to the rest of the game, as the Mavs are 9th in first-quarter scoring but 19th in full-game scoring, and 13th in first-quarter points allowed but 5th for the full game. Tonight they welcome a Boston Celtics team that’s 3rd in first-quarter scoring this season, and who scores the most in opening quarters on the road.

These are also two teams in love with the 3-ball, as Boston takes the second and Dallas the third-most shots from downtown in the league. Those shots should be flying early, and with both teams just average in 3-point percentage defense it should help boost early scoring. Dallas also had an ugly shooting night in their last game and should be in line for positive regression early in this one. So in a national TV spot with plenty of star power on the court, I’m seeing an exciting first quarter that flies over this total.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Luka Doncic Over 52.5 Points+Assists+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

I mentioned the star power, and no star seems to be shining brighter right now than Doncic. What will he do for an encore on national TV here after topping 50 points 3 times in the past 6 games? This is a bit of lazy odds making, as Doncic averages exactly 52 on this prop for the season. But those past 6 games have seen him top this all but once while dropping 65.7 on average. I see him going off again to make a statement for the TNT audience against a top opponent.

NCAA Basketball (1.5 Unit) Navy/Colgate Over 141.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I’m loving the value that keeps showing up for Navy totals, as the preseason expectation of a plodding Midshipmen team is still impacting the odds making. To be fair, they are playing at that expected slow pace, but the shooting and efficiency are what has caused this team to be 10-2 to the over. Tonight they meet an even more potent version of themselves in Colgate, and the result should be plenty of points.

The Raiders are the top team in the country for effective field goal percentage, and rank 6th in offensive efficiency. They should tear up a Navy defense that has been the team’s biggest weakness at 288th in defensive rating. But Colgate also has a terrible defense, especially against the three, which Navy has become excellent at this year, ranking top-10 in percentage from deep. Regardless of pace this game should be an offensive efficiency masterpiece, and carry it over a far too-low total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Grand Canyon @ Sam Houston St. -3 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN+

Grand Canyon is one of the more dangerous teams in the country when on their home floor. But a true road game here, just their third of the year, is a spot I’m looking to fade the Antelopes, who have become inflated off their home success. It helps being able to back such an excellent team in Sam Houston State, who continues to impress and win when they’re supposed to.

The Bearkats are now 7-3 ATS on the season, including 4-0 as a favorite, and unlike GCU have been road warriors to start the year. Being back home for their WAC conference opener should make this a home hype spot for Sam Houston. Their excellent defense that’s 34th in efficiency will be the difference here against a GCU team that struggles from the field and should be exposed on the road. Most analytical models have this as a multiple-possession margin for Sam Houston, so I’ll lay the short price here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1006-858 ATS (+84.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.