Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Atlanta Hawks @ Indiana Pacers -3 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports IN
This game could be wild with all the offense and lack of defense from similarly-styled teams. But in the end I think Indiana is the right side here considering how both teams are playing coming into tonight. Atlanta has had two very suspicious wins in a row, and the internal rumblings are real within that organization.
The Pacers by contrast have really gotten things going lately, winning five straight after a rough stretch, including consecutive convincing victories over Milwaukee. They’re actually playing some semblance of defense as well, which really sets them apart from the Hawks. I’m also always looking to fade Atlanta on the road, as they’re the league’s worst road ATS team this season, so I like the Pacers to cover this short number.
NBA (1 Unit) Utah Jazz @ Boston Celtics -8.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on NBCS-Boston
The Celtics are too talented to let losses pile up, and they always bounce back from them with a vengeance. They always seem to run teams out right away in general, and especially when they’re off a loss like they are here. Of their seven losses on the season, four of them were followed by home games, and they led at halftime by an average 13.3 point margin and covered this number in all of them.
That’s not unusual for the league’s best average first half margin team, and tonight they get a Utah team that has the second-worst first half margin in road games. The Jazz are having real trouble stopping anything right now, so look for the Celtics to run up the score early to take out frustrations from Tuesday’s loss.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Miami Heat/Phoenix Suns Under 229.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SUN
Keep an eye on Kevin Durant for this game, as he’s questionable with a hamstring injury. But him being out would subtract another superstar from the game as Jimmy Butler is slated to miss this one as well. I think that holds down the scoring enough for these teams to fall short of the total given the styles they play. Both are bottom-5 teams in pace of play, and they’re both just average when it comes to effective field goal rate.
That’s a good combination for cashing unders, and while the Suns have been an over team at home, the Heat are the league’s second-best under team on the road. Superstar absences should be enough to limit scoring tonight and make this game lean towards the Miami road trend as opposed to the Phoenix home trend.
NBA Friday Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
1 Unit – Anthony Edwards Over 29.5 Points (-110)
1 Unit - Bradley Beal Over 21.5 Points (-110)
0.75 Unit – Jalen Brunson Over 7.5 Assists (-150)
0.75 Unit – Julius Randle Over 27.5 Points (-125)
0.5 Unit – Trae Young Over 3.5 Made Three’s (+115)
0.5 Unit – Jalen Johnson Over 28.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.5 Unit – Derrick White Over 2.5 Made Three’s (-110)
0.5 Unit – Jalen Williams Over 16.5 Points (-110)
0.5 Unit – Anfernee Simons Over 24.5 Points (-110)
0.5 Unit – Immanuel Quickley Over 17.5 Points (-110)
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1896-1705 ATS (+84.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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