Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/04

Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Missouri/Arkansas Over 155 (-110; Odds via BetRivers): 7:30 PM CT on SEC Network

I expect this border battle to come with a ton of points, as both offenses are in an excellent spot to deliver. This home hype spot for Arkansas gives them a big advantage against a Missouri team that really hasn’t been tested on the road yet. The Tigers just can’t stop any high-level offenses right now, and an excellent shooting team like the Razorbacks will be able to take advantage of the country’s 234th team for effective field goal percentage defense.

But Arkansas’ own defense is extremely inflated and undeserving of the metrics it has accumulated against a weak schedule. The best offense the Hogs have faced from an efficiency standpoint is Creighton, who at 48th in points per possession hung 90 on them in Maui. With Mizzou leading the nation in offensive efficiency, their pace and shooting should be a shock to Arkansas’ system. With the Razorbacks also playing up-tempo this season, there’s a good reason the analytical models have this game approaching 160 points.

Degenerates

NBA Portland Trail Blazers/Minnesota Timberwolves 1st Half Over 119.5 (-110; Odds via FanDuel): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

Both of these teams can obviously score in bunches, and their below-average defenses suggest plenty of points are coming tonight. That was the case in the two previous meetings this season, as both games cruised over the respective totals. But some struggles on the road for Portland since that doubleheader have me wary here, and thus targeting the first half where they’ve tended to do more scoring.

The Wolves and Blazers are tied for 10th in first-half scoring this season, and that helped fuel first halves of 131 and 129 points in those previous meetings. But that was the bulk of the scoring compared to the second halves, and that trend has followed Portland ever since. The Timberwolves are 24th in first-half points allowed at home and facing a team that’s proven it can score on them, so I see another high-scoring start to tonight’s game.

Tiny Nick is 1006-857 ATS (+85.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.