Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/04

Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Minnesota +6.5 @ Michigan (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Peacock

The Gophers are the best ATS team in the country, and while that’s been built up at home, I still think this number is too big. We’re not talking about the Michigan football team here, it’s a basketball program that is not having the strongest of years. The Wolverines are fresh off a home buy-game loss to McNeese State, which highlighted defensive issues that have plagued them all season.

Their field goal defense and defensive efficiency numbers are simply bad relative to their overall standing, and Minnesota can take advantage tonight. The strength of the Gophers has been in their shooting, particularly inside the arc where Michigan is just 150th in two-point percentage defense. If the Gophers can bring their quality shooting on the road with them, this game will be plenty competitive down the stretch and allow Minnesota to stay inside the number.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Pepperdine @ Gonzaga -11.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on ROOT Sports NW

This line feels like a bit of a gift that Gonzaga’s recent struggles have provided us. But those can and should turn around now that they enter WCC play, where they always roll over middling visitors to The Kennel like this. Give the Zags credit for playing a tough schedule to this point, and even with that they’ve still managed the 25th-best average first half margin in the country.

Pepperdine ranks 219th in that category, as their defense really can’t hold up, especially against a good offense like they’ll see tonight. The Waves have faced three teams in the top-50 at KenPom, trailing at halftime by 15, 24, and 24 points. They were also down 14 at the break to an awful Louisville team in their other true road game, so rolling into The Kennel is going to be a tough ask. That’s made even more difficult by Gonzaga needing to atone for some recent struggles, so look for them to stomp a weak conference opponent early tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Colorado/Arizona Over 161.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN

This will be a great game, and I think the shooting will be off the charts. Colorado has become one of the best shooting teams in the country, ranked 10th in effective field goal rate, and are 7th in three-point percentage. That can perfectly exploit Arizona’s weak perimeter defense, with the Wildcats ranked 222nd in opponent three-point percentage.

Arizona is also going to speed Colorado up because that’s what they do to everyone, playing at the 4th-fastest adjusted tempo in the country. All those extra possessions for Colorado’s elite shooting just means more scoring from the Buffs here. But Arizona is going to max out the offense tonight after an embarrassing blowout on Sunday, especially with ESPN in town for their first home game in almost a month. With the levels of pace and efficiency we should see in this game, even this high a total is well within reach.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1894-1704 ATS (+83.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.