Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/03

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Washington Wizards @ Milwaukee Bucks -2.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on NBATV

The Washington Wizards are hot, and the Milwaukee Bucks are not. Regardless, I have to trust the narrative over the numbers here in a spot where Milwaukee should be able to bounce back. While the Wizards crushed Milwaukee on Sunday by 23 points, neither Giannis Antetokounmpo nor Jrue Holiday played in that game. With those two expected back in the lineup tonight, and Bradley Beal still likely out for Washington, I’m seeing the Bucks make a revenge statement in a relative buy-low opportunity.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Western Michigan/Kent St. Under 136 (-110; Odds via BetRivers): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This should be a grind of a game, the result of slow pace from Western Michigan and excellent defense from Kent State. The way the Golden Flashes have looked on the defensive end is the biggest key here, as they’re now up to 10th in defensive rating and 14th in points per possession allowed. They’ve held their past three D1 opponents to 55.7 PPG, and have successfully held down some of the best offenses in the country.

So this should be an easy task for them against a Broncos team that’s 274th in scoring, and around 200th in other more advanced offensive metrics. Western Michigan’s contribution to this game staying under will be their pace of play, as they’re 336th in possessions per game. Kent State is by no means an offensive juggernaut, ranking just 173rd in points per possession. With a low number of possessions in this game and Kent State flexing their defensive muscles, I just don’t see how this gets to a relatively moderate total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Virginia @ Pittsburgh +6 (-110; Odds via BetRivers): 8:00 PM CT on ACC Network

I have to take Pittsburgh here based on the number I’m getting. Two possessions worth of points in my pocket is a lot with a great underdog team, especially at home in a game with a very low total. That’s the natural value standpoint, but the Panthers are also a sneaky-good team in general.

This squad is still under the radar and thus undervalued against a brand-name program in Virginia. But a one-point road loss is all that’s keeping Pitt from a ten-game winning streak. Pittsburgh is also 9-1 ATS in that ten-game stretch, and on the season are 5-2-1 ATS as an underdog. To illustrate the point of Virginia being overvalued due to their brand name, the Cavaliers by comparison are just 4-8 ATS on the year including 1-7 as a favorite.

Virginia still experiences their usual struggles offensively, and if those show up on the road here against such a scrappy team, it’ll be tough to pull away and win by margin. Pitt should be considered a live underdog tonight, and as a team that consistently plays close games they should keep this one tight as well.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1004-856 ATS (+84.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.