Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/02

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Denver Nuggets/Minnesota Timberwolves 1st Quarter Over 59.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

As horribly as Saturday night went for the Timberwolves, at least they stayed true to their high-scoring ways in first quarters. I expect that to continue here in a great matchup for early scoring, against a number I thought would be a couple of points higher. First off, Denver comes in with no rest having played a high-possession game last night. The Nuggets are 3-0 to the over with a ridiculous plus-18.2 margin to the total with no rest, so points should be expected in general.

But the Nuggets are also the league’s highest-scoring team in the first quarter this season, including on the road. With the Wolves ranked third in first-quarter scoring, these offenses should have no trouble. Particularly Denver’s offense, as I mentioned Minnesota’s league-worst defense in first quarters on Saturday. But with the Nuggets a little tired and the Wolves looking to bounce back, this opening 12 minutes should be electric.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Anthony Edwards Over 35.5 Points+Assists+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

It’s an auto-bet at this point with Edwards as this number is the same as it’s been for the past couple games. Eventually, it will reach an inflation point that’s no longer worth betting, but that’s not tonight, not in a game like this. It should be an over environment as I mentioned, raising Ant’s floor for the number of points he should contribute. Denver is 25th in defensive rating this season, allow the 2nd-most assists per game, and are just average in rebounding. Edwards should find his way over this total again after hitting it in 11 of the past 17 games.

NFL (0.75 Unit) Josh Allen Over 34.5 Pass Attempts (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN

I think the spread being essentially a pick-em for this game is warranted, and I’m not going to lean to either side in what’s hopefully a great game. But if it is the tightly-contested game we’re hoping for, that tells me this prop total is definitely in play. Allen tends to bring his best self to big games, and the Buffalo Bills rely more on his arm in those toughest contests. While he’s averaging 35.7 attempts per game on the season, drilling down to Buffalo’s toughest challenges this season is where I find even more value.

The Bills have played seven games determined by less than a five-point margin, and Allen has averaged 42.6 attempts in those. And the Bills would be right to attack Cincinnati through the air as the Bengals are just average against the pass, ranking 14th in DVOA metrics. If another tight one unfolds here, especially in primetime with so much on the line, Buffalo should rely on Allen’s arm as they so often do.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Dawson Knox Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+220; Odds via DraftKings)

If Buffalo is going to be throwing it all over the yard tonight, then I like the chances for Allen to find one of his top targets in the end zone. Knox has scored in three straight games, so this pricing of above +200 is great value. The Buffalo tight end has been priced above +200 in eight games this season, and he rewarded bettors in five of them. The reward is too juicy to pass up on this one, plain and simple.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1003-855 ATS (+85.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.