Will Minnesota's Schedule Allow Them To Escape Their .500 Time Loop?

In the 1993 comedy fantasy Groundhog Day, Bill Murray plays Phil Connors, a cynical TV weatherman who isn’t thrilled about his most recent assignment. His Pittsburgh station sends Connors to western Punxsutawney, Penn. to see if a local groundhog will see his shadow on February 1. If he does, it means six more months of winter. Connors isn’t particularly fond of the assignment, calling the locals “hicks” and saying he’s going to leave for a new job.

On February 2, Connors

The Minnesota Twins have been waking up at the Cherry Hill Inn all season. Their combination of masterful pitching and impotent hitting has resulted in tight, one-score games that can go either way. The result? They’re stubbornly .500. Occasionally, they’ll reenact 2019 and send a pitcher to the showers early. But they leave most games to chance, hoping for a late-inning rally or that Jhoan Durán holds a tight lead.

The Atlanta Braves swept the Twins before the break, and Rocco Baldelli let them have it. But he offered them a reset two days later, before the series in Baltimore. Minnesota responded by winning 8-1. But then they won 1-0 and lost 2-1, falling to 42-43. Back to the Cherry Hill Inn. The Twins returned home and swept the hapless Kansas City Royals, bringing their record to 45-43, only to watch the Baltimore Orioles sweep them before the All-Star Break. Cue “I Got You Babe” on the clock radio.

Baldelli offered them grace despite losing 15-2 in the final game before the break. However, the Twins have tethered themselves to .500 again. They got the Oakland A’s to start the second half and swept them: 5-4, 10-7, 5-4. Minnesota needed two runs in the ninth to secure the Game 1 win. Pablo López gave up seven earned runs in 5.2 innings, and they blew 6-0 and 7-4 leads before winning the second game 10-7. And the Twins capped off the sweep with a three-run seventh inning. They left the Bay Area with a 48-46 record.

The Twins are 9-1 against the Royals and swept the A’s, meaning they have taken care of business against the worst two teams in baseball. However, they didn’t make it easy in Oakland. Twenty-four hours later, Minnesota’s other All-Star pitcher gave up five earned runs and didn’t get out of the sixth inning. Sonny Gray only gave up one hard-hit ball, but he walked in a run and was upset with his command. The Twins fell to 48-47 on the season. It’s 6:00 am in Punxsutawney again.

The Twins had a plus-27 run differential before the All-Star Break. However, they padded that stat in a few blowout games. Furthermore, they were 8-4 in extra-inning games but only 9-15 overall in one-run games. They’ve needed more offense from Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton most of the year. Baldelli has made Correa Minnesota’s leadoff hitter, and he’s hitting .340/.421/.440 in that spot. However, Buxton is mired in a 1-for-31 slump.

That’s unfortunate in a year where they’ve had good pitching and played well against the New York Yankees and Houston Astros. The Twins have a 51-44 Pythagorean record, meaning that they should be better given how many runs they’ve scored compared (406) to runs allowed (375). However, they’ve done a lot of the heavy lifting in the first half. Things ease up until August.

• Upon returning home from Seattle, they play the Chicago White Sox and then the Mariners again. The White Sox have been disappointing this year, and Seattle is .500.
• Then they go on a Missouri road trip. That means three more games against the Royals and three against the St. Louis Cardinals, who are having a rare down year.
• The Twins get three home games against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are hanging around the NL West, before going on the road again to play the Detroit Tigers and Philadelphia Phillies.
• Then they get the Tigers and Pittsburgh Pirates at home before things get more difficult: two games in Milwaukee and home-and-home series against the Texas Rangers and Cleveland Guardians.

The Diamondbacks have been surprisingly good. They’re competing with the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants for the NL West. And the Phillies were in the World Series last year. But the rest of the schedule is pretty manageable. It gives Minnesota’s lineup an opportunity to get going and create some separation in the AL Central. Phil Connors eventually escapes his time loop. Will the Twins?