Why Is Everyone So Certain The Vikings Are Taking Dillon Thieneman?

The Minnesota Vikings’ offseason hasn’t had much suspense. If you’ve been paying attention to the mock drafts ahead of the actual NFL Draft later this month, most draft analysts believe that isn't likely to change.

According to the NFL Mock Draft Database’s consensus mock draft, the Vikings are projected to take Oregon safety Dillon Thieneman with the 18th-overall pick. With 55 first-round mock drafts, Thieneman has a 63% projection rate that trails only Fernando Mendoza to the Las Vegas Raiders (98%) and Arvell Reese to the New York Jets (78%) as the most-projected picks in this year’s draft.

But before Vikings fans sigh and order their Thieneman jerseys, there’s a lot to consider. This team still has many holes entering the draft. When it comes to the first-round pick, there are several avenues the Vikings can consider before sending in the card for the former Duck.

This doesn’t mean that Thieneman would be a bad pick. While he doesn’t have great size at 6’1”, 201 lbs., he has elite athleticism, posting a 4.35-second time in the 40-yard dash, a 41” vertical, and a 9.67 Relative Athletic Score. NFL Media’s Lance Zierlein also noted that Thieneman “is an extension of his defensive coordinator, aligning and adjusting the secondary to motion and pre-snap shifts.”

Looking at Minnesota’s safety room, the argument gets stronger. Josh Metellus is a safety by nature, but he’s at his best when roaming around the defense. Harrison Smith is probably leaning towards one more season, but also could retire, leaving a hole at free safety. Theo Jackson and Jay Ward are probably reserves, and with Zierlein comparing Thieneman to Jevon Holland, who was a Brian Flores draft pick with the Miami Dolphins in 2021, it makes sense.

But to have this many people agree a month out before the draft? That’s where things get weird.

The Vikings don’t have the most concrete structure in their front office after firing general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah in February. But it’s unlikely that interim general manager Rob Brzezinski, head coach Kevin O’Connell, or defensive coordinator Brian Flores spent the combine and this week’s league meetings in Arizona like your friend who tipped his strategy after slamming too many Mich Golden Lights the night before your dynasty draft.

Instead, this may be a matter of groupthink. The Vikings have long been a team that has drafted for need over taking the best player available, and safety feels like it’s at the top of the list. It’s also common for the consensus to get the Vikings’ pick wrong in the three years that the NFL Mock Draft Database has been doing a consensus mock draft, with J.J. McCarthy the only pick the mocks have gotten correct.

Draft analysts do an insane amount of work throughout the year and could be making a decision based on Minnesota's previous trend of drafting by need. But when looking at the team as a whole, there are several directions they could take.

The Vikings could look at their backfield and decide it needs an energy boost. Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones were fine in their first year together as a tandem, but a need for explosive plays could convince them to make a bold move to trade up for Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love.

Cornerback is another area the Vikings could use, and it is a premium position among draft circles. While some teams have taken a different approach, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Vikings land on a cornerback like Clemson’s Avieon Terrell if he fell that far.

Cornerback and safety aren’t the only needs on Flores’ defense heading into the draft. The linebacker position features Blake Cashman, who's frequently injured. While Eric Wilson signed an extension, he’s entering his age-32 season and could fall off the age cliff at any moment.

While fans won’t miss Javon Hargrave or Jonathan Allen after non-descript seasons in Minnesota, it’s still two defensive tackles that walked out the door, leaving the Vikings to need a tag team partner for Jalen Redmond on the inside.

There’s also the chance the Vikings look for a player who could help them contribute more in 2027 than in 2026. Brian O’Neill’s final year of his contract and the uncertainty surrounding Christian Darrisaw could make an offensive tackle an option. T.J. Hockenson’s contract year could convince the Vikings to take a tight end.

Blake Brandel could be replaced by a player they want to move to center. While the Vikings are set to pick up Jordan Addison’s fifth-year option and have “earmarked” money for an extension, they’re one more bizarre traffic infraction from needing a new No. 2 receiver.

Despite all of this, mock drafters have looked at Smith’s potential retirement and decided the front office only has eyes for Thieneman. Again, this wouldn’t be a bad pick. But tunnel vision is part of the reason Minnesota’s roster has become paper-thin, and a long-range view may not only add suspense to the draft but also help find a player who could make an impact.