What Would the Vikings Get In A Sam Darnold Trade?

The Minnesota Vikings have a good problem on their hands.

In a league where solid quarterback play is tough to find, the Vikings presumably have two. Sam Darnold is coming off a renaissance year where he led Minnesota to a 14-3 record. J.J. McCarthy is the hand-picked heir apparent. There can only be one Highlander -- err…starting quarterback.

You get the idea.

With a weak 2025 quarterback class, Minnesota's decision could be one of the most intriguing of the offseason. They could franchise tag Darnold and give McCarthy a second redshirt year after getting no on-field reps during his rookie season. They could also trade McCarthy. However, that may be counterintuitive, considering the Vikings have already invested a full year into his development, and he could be considered the top quarterback if he came out in this year’s draft.

Both are possibilities, but the most likely is to use the franchise tag to trade Darnold. The tag would cost the Vikings $41.3 million on next year’s cap, but it would be a good piece of business for both sides. Darnold’s camp could use the figure combined with a second-year tag of $48 million and use that as a starting point for a contract. Meanwhile, the Vikings could use it to buy time to find a willing trade partner that Darnold approves of.

So what could the Vikings get for Darnold in return? Thankfully, there are a couple of precedents.

The first occurred in 2009 after Matt Cassel broke out for the New England Patriots. Filling in after Tom Brady suffered a torn ACL in Week 1, Cassel threw for 3,693 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions to lead New England to a 10-6 record.

While Cassel couldn’t will the Patriots to the playoffs, he did enough to establish a market for his services. The Kansas City Chiefs came calling the following spring, giving up the 34th-overall pick in exchange for Cassel and Mike Vrabel before signing Cassel to a six-year, $62.7 million contract with $28 million in guaranteed money.

The trade didn’t work out for the Chiefs. Cassel had a 19-28 record as a starter and signed with the Vikings to back up Christian Ponder before the 2013 season. However, the Patriots made the most of their situation by selecting safety Patrick Chung, who became a key part of New England’s defense on the way to three Super Bowl titles in the 2010s.

Ironically, the Chiefs were involved in that deal because they were on the opposite side of the negotiation in 2018. Alex Smith replaced Cassel with the arrival of Andy Reid in 2013 and started five seasons for Kansas City, posting a 50-26 record. While Smith had regular-season success, he couldn’t get them over the hump in the playoffs, leading to the K.C.’s selection of Patrick Mahomes in the 2017 draft.

Smith had one of his best years as a starter in 2017, throwing for over 4,000 yards for the only time in his career and tossing a career-high 26 touchdown passes. But the Chiefs knew what they had in Mahomes, leaving Smith to the open market. The market developed quickly, and Kanas City traded Smith to the Washington Commanders for the 78th-overall pick in the 2018 draft and cornerback Kendall Fuller.

Smith signed a four-year, $94 million contract with the Commanders, but a severe leg injury ended his career after two seasons in Washington. Fuller filled a need for Kansas City as a young corner on a rookie deal but didn’t reach his potential, returning to Washington after two uneventful seasons with the Chiefs.

The draft pick didn’t turn out either, as the Chiefs traded down to select linebacker Dorian O’Daniel, but that was okay because they turned to Patrick Mahomes. Three Super Bowl wins later -- and a potential fourth on the way -- and it appears Kansas City turned out just fine.

These two deals are the closest comparison for Darnold, but his performance comes with a caveat. Darnold put up better stats than Cassel and Smith, leading his team to more success in the regular season. But his performance in the final two games may leave a bad taste in the mouth of potential suitors, making projecting a market difficult.

Then again, there’s also the issue of supply and demand. Teams are desperate for high-level quarterback play. If someone displays it, it’s worth something — even if that was a small sample size like Darnold.

Think back to last spring. The Vikings had Kirk Cousins and needed to decide whether he was worth the money to keep around. Many estimates figured Cousins would cost somewhere near the $35 million he made in 2023, and his Achilles injury seemed to devalue him even more as he hit free agency. Next thing you know, the Atlanta Falcons swooped in with $45 million per season, and the Vikings let Cousins move on.

A similar chain of events could happen during this year’s scouting combine. A few cocktails at St. Elmo’s and Minnesota will probably know Darnold's market. If a team gets too crazy, a deal like the Patriots got for Cassel is possible, but the Vikings also don’t have a player that a team would covet in the same way the Chiefs eyed Vrabel.

There’s also the pick-and-player scenario the Chiefs worked out for Smith. However, that would also depend on a controllable player that the Vikings coveted. Perhaps that player would be an offensive guard, center, or cornerback, but those could also be worked out in the coming weeks.

In the end, it could be something in the middle. The Vikings need draft capital, and securing a third- or fourth-round pick would go a long way for a team projected to have four picks – including none on Day 2 – in April’s draft.

That may be disappointing for fans who believed Darnold’s comeback season would get a haul this spring. However, as the Chiefs showed, the deal may not matter if McCarthy turns out to be the long-term solution at quarterback.