What Josh Oliver's Sudden Receiving Production Means For Minnesota's Offense

Mick Jagger once famously sang that you can’t always get what you want, but if you try sometimes you just might find that you get what you need. But what if, every now and then, you get what you want and what you need?

The Minnesota Vikings brought Josh Oliver to town for his blocking ability. But against the Indianapolis Colts, he had five receptions for 58 yards. Last Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars, he nabbed four receptions for 52 yards, including a one-hander even the officials didn’t believe was a catch until they saw the replay.

We’re not used to seeing this kind of production from Oliver. Maybe his sudden rise in receiving prowess is an outlier. From 2019 to 2023, he only accrued 12 receptions per year on average.

However, let’s entertain the idea that the Vikings have another viable pass catcher in Oliver and what that could mean for coach Kevin O’Connell’s dynamic play-calling. If Oliver’s development as a receiving tight end is more than a passing fad, that opens Minnesota's offense to be even more effective.

T.J. Hockenson’s return likely influenced Oliver’s uptick in offensive production. Oliver and Hockenson didn’t play every down together, like Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson, who often share the field. Still, like Jefferson, accounting for Hockenson is a significant focus in opponents’ game planning.

Hock’s presence on the field imposes varying strategies and adjustments – the kind of game plans that the defense wouldn’t make for a guy like Oliver, who had only 22 catches all of last year. So, Oliver probably wouldn’t have had the success he had in the passing game if Hockenson was still hurt.

Of course, this is the sort of thing an offensive-minded coach like O’Connell lives for. He loves to scheme around playmakers like Hockenson with more-than-capable talent to back them up, aka position guys like Oliver, because it allows him to find new and creative ways to move the ball down the field.

O’Connell’s approach echoes his time under Sean McVay with the Los Angeles Rams. The old “illusion of complexity” method can discombobulate defenses by running similar concepts play-to-play while mixing up the personnel.

We know O’Connell loves to get the ball to his playmakers like Jefferson. To make that happen, he aims to strategically utilize all field assets. So, when things go according to plan, we regularly see down conversions come from under-the-radar guys like former Rams players Johnny Mundt and Brandon Powell, the latter of whom Jefferson once called a “little bulldog.”

You can all but guarantee these guys get soft coverage, possibly from a bumbling linebacker or otherwise low-rated DBs whose eyes are distracted by Jefferson’s diamond chain or Hockenson’s golden locks.

And, sure, you could attribute Oliver’s recent success to this year’s quarterback change or consider it a statistical anomaly isolated to a couple of weeks and nothing more. Yet it appears that Oliver fits into this kind of O’Connell-utility wheelhouse now more than ever.

Last year, Oliver only totaled 213 yards. Just nine games into 2024, he’s already accrued 182. So, why not Oliver, not only as an occasional weapon but as a regular one?

We’re talking about a guy with 10 and 3/4” hands, bigger than Shaq’s. Seriously, one of his hands could cover the span of an iPad or your average dinner plate. Plus, he’s a veteran with a year and a half in O’Connell's scheme.

While significant receiving numbers are a foreign stat line in his NFL career, Oliver is no stranger to using his talents in that quintessential multi-use tight end role, which continues to become more valuable in this league. In his senior year in college, Oliver had 56 receptions for 709 yards. Not only that, but his 40-yard time at the combine was in the 82nd percentile at 4.63. Plus, he’s 6’4”, 250 lbs.

Do the Vikings have a large enough sample size to trust him with more ball attention? After all, there are already a lot of mouths to feed, and he has only strung together a couple of weeks of great pass-catching play. Before that, he was almost a strictly run blocker with the occasional ball slung his way.

It stands to reason Oliver’s success isn’t isolated. He’s grown into a new role in his fifth season and his second under a coach who loves to attack defenses through the air. It looks like he’s ready for this, ready to shoot for a higher money mark than the $9-ish million he’s owed next year. Believe it or not, quarterbacks aren’t the only players whose careers and contracts depend on ongoing development.

For a final point supporting his growth, let me take you back to Oliver’s 2019 combine. Analyst Lance Zierlein wrote this: “Runs with pumping, flailing arms… Run blocking will need work before he can handle NFL in-line duties… Too many complete whiffs on blocks across formation.”

In 2024, after all those “blocking whiffs” and “flailing arms,” analysts and coaches regard Oliver as one of the best run-blocking tight ends in the NFL  – or, if you’re Wes Phillips, the actual best. In other words, he’s teachable. And maybe, just as he developed as a run blocker from questionable to elite, he’s also taken a step forward as a receiver.

You’ve gotta love Oliver’s mini-chunk gains in the flats. If he continues to prove he’s a clutch pass catcher and fodder for Sam Darnold’s confidence, Oliver could continue getting three-plus targets a game. Let’s hope we see more pass-catching production out of him, forcing defenses to account for another weapon and making an already-potent offense that much better. That might be something the Vikings need, but it’s definitely something they want.