What Is Behind Ant's Second-Half Statistical Decline?

A raspy-voiced Anthony Edwards approached the podium late Thursday afternoon after receiving treatment. Dane Moore asked if he was feeling a little sick.

“Yeah, for sure,” he said. “But I’ll be alright.”

Edwards responded with his trademark smile. Downplaying injuries and illnesses to avoid making excuses has become an Edwards staple. Per Moore, Naz Reid has even joked about Edwards going to the locker room with injury as “Pierce-ing it,” a reference to Paul Pierce's famous wheelchair departure during Game 1 of the 2008 Finals. However, these injuries appear to have impacted Edwards’ play since the All-Star break.

Edwards has appeared on the injury report 11 times since the All-Star game. His injuries include a left ankle injury, left knee injury, finger injury, left hip contusion, back injury, and, most recently, illness.

It’s easy to dismiss these injuries because Edwards often says he’s good. However, given the accumulation of his injuries, it’s hard to imagine Edwards truly is good.

His decline in play is evident in his post-All-Star statistics. Before the All-Star game on February 18th, Edwards averaged 26.3 points per game, 5.2 rebounds, and 5.3 assists. But after the All-Star Game, he's averaging 25.3 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 4.9 assists.

Although the dropoff difference appears drastic, Edwards’ advanced shooting stats show a different story. Post-All-Star break, Edwards has seen his field goal, three-point, and shots close to the basket all drop.

After the All-Star Break, Edwards had to carry a bigger load because of Karl-Anthony Towns's meniscus injury. However, Edwards’ statistical dropoff likely could be due to many lower body injuries that he has been playing through. That could cause him to not get as much lift on his jumper or the same burst on his drives, thus resulting in a lower percentage in jumpers and shots around the basket.

Fatigue also may be setting in while he plays with nagging injuries. Curiously, the numbers suggest that Edwards typically gets better as the game progresses. While that may seem counterintuitive, it’s fairly common with injuries.

When injured, players tend to feel stiff or take longer to get a rhythm because players must stretch out muscles at the beginning of games and need the heat from playing to keep them loose. That’s often why players get pre-game stretches and continue to have heating pads or wraps on certain body parts.

Think of a baseball pitcher throwing a perfect game in the middle of July. The pitcher returns to the dugout and wears a coat despite the heat of the summer. The same theory of keeping an arm warmed up and loose as keeping a basketball player's body warmed up and loose applies here.

Edwards has been sensational for the Wolves this year, occasionally carrying a 56-win team. However, with a best-of-seven game series remaining, the Wolves will need Edwards at his peak physically and mentally to advance past to the second round for the first time since 2004. For now, though, we can only take Edwards at his word.