What If J.J. McCarthy Had Been Healthy For the Entire 2025 Season?

As a teen, first falling in love with NFL football, I used to enjoy this comedic video series from Dave Dameshek that explored the countless alternate timeline scenarios he called the

As this season comes to a close and I look at the way the final few games for Minnesota have unfolded, there’s an “N ‘if’ L” scenario of my own that I can’t get out of my head: What if J.J. McCarthy had been healthy for all 17 games?

It’s become en vogue on Vikings Twitter the past week to highlight just how close the Vikings were to being legitimate Wild Card contenders. After shellacking the Detroit Lions on Christmas Day with Max Brosmer’s three net passing yards, Minnesota’s defense is undoubtedly playing at a playoff-caliber level.

The Vikings spanked a talented fringe contender like Detroit without any semblance of a functional offense. Therefore, it’s not so far-fetched to think that this team, as flawed as they may have been for most of this season, absolutely could have found themselves as a tough out on Wild Card Weekend.

Not only that, this team is really only a few ball bounces away from feasibly winning the division.

It really makes you agonize over the lost opportunities. How many games did this team let its offense short-circuit because of the coaching staff’s insistence on drilling new passing mechanics into every McCarthy drop-back? How different might things have been if they’d simply told him to go out there and sling it from the get-go, especially if it had been combined with some of the offense’s change in scheme and gameday processes?

Perhaps above all, what if we’d never had to endure the Carson Wentz or Max Brosmer experience this season? Would this be the playoff team we all thought it could be entering the season?

While I can’t predict exactly when and how Minnesota’s coaching staff would’ve changed their philosophy toward McCarthy in this scenario, there are a few things to consider. McCarthy’s struggles early on against the Chicago Bears in Week 1, as well as his disappointing performance against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 2, would’ve likely gone the same.

There’s some argument that perhaps he began playing even worse after injuring his knee during the game against the Falcons, but McCarthy was in enough of a downward trajectory already. I wouldn't assume any changes with any degree of confidence. The defense was also instrumental in dismantling the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3, so I won’t presume any change in outcome.

However, things got interesting when the Vikings made their jaunt across the pond. Carson Wentz played a statistically strong game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, even if it was ultimately a losing effort with some key turndowns and dysfunction at the end. Could a sputtering McCarthy have been an improvement that day? One could argue it was Wentz’s best day in a Vikings uniform, so if there is such a thing as a high-water mark for Minnesota’s backup QBs this season, that’s probably it. I’d give McCarthy a 50/50 chance to exceed Wentz’s output in Dublin.

Wentz had begun to break down physically against the Cleveland Browns and the Philadelphia Eagles, and the warts in his game were starting to show. Some late heroics lifted Minnesota over the Browns, but Cleveland looked like the better team for most of the afternoon despite starting Dillon Gabriel at quarterback. It’s hard to imagine McCarthy playing any worse than Wentz did for most of that day, especially if the increased reps had actually manifested positive momentum for the young passer by then.

Against Philly, Minnesota was legitimately only a few plays away from taking that game from the reigning champs, despite Wentz’s struggles. If McCarthy hits even a few of the obvious, inexplicable turndowns Wentz refused to throw that afternoon, Minnesota very well could’ve struck a decisive win.

Then there’s the Thursday night game against the Los Angeles Chargers, which is hard to project any differently. Wentz completely crumbled into a paste under the physical punishment of the Chargers' defense. Still, the team was comprehensively outclassed that night. McCarthy isn’t going to help Minnesota’s defense learn to cover Oronde Gadsden.

Then McCarthy returned to the lineup himself and had his own highs and lows.

Beating the Lions was great, but close losses with disappointing performances against the Baltimore Ravens and Bears certainly take the wind out of your sails. And things really hit rock bottom for McCarthy in Week 12 against the Packers, one of his worst games of the season.

The only hope for McCarthy in this alternate history is that playing all those previous games would have given him the necessary experience and sparked some of the offensive changes Kevin O’Connell made later in the year by this point. Maybe it would’ve been enough to put them over the top against Baltimore or Chicago?

Then there’s the disaster game against the Seattle Seahawks. Maybe I’m a coward, but this is a possible point where Minnesota’s season could’ve gone worse if McCarthy had been at the helm. I’m not implying he would have been any worse than Brosmer’s four interceptions that afternoon. Still, I’m not sure he would’ve been all that much better. That’s the kind of buzzsaw that could’ve absolutely derailed his confidence had Brosmer not been the sacrificial lamb that afternoon.

Finally, we have the bounce-back stretch of the season. These are the games on which all the optimism in this piece is built. McCarthy’s performance against the Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys was outstanding, and he likely would’ve managed to hold on to the win against the New York Giants as well.

Heading into the final two games against Detroit -- a game where I’m betting Minnesota manages more than three net passing yards with McCarthy at the helm on their way to a win -- and this weekend against Green Bay, there would’ve been real stakes at the end of the season. In this admittedly very optimistic alternate timeline I’ve suggested, the Vikings would be playing with real playoff implications on the line and a chance for McCarthy to redeem himself for his low point in Lambeau weeks earlier.

All this may be overlooking some clear, real-world factors, though. Projecting these scenarios may not be as easy as: The backup was bad, McCarthy might’ve done better, and picking wins out of close losses.

If McCarthy never steps away, does the Vikings coaching staff still make the offensive adjustments to simplify things that were necessitated by Carson Wentz's entry into the lineup after signing in late August? McCarthy credits getting smoother, quicker operations at the line of scrimmage to being able to observe Wentz; is that just deferential lip service, or something he would’ve still struggled without?

Above all, it’s impossible to know how McCarthy would’ve handled the ebbs and flows of the season had he weathered it in its entirety. Would he have played as well in Detroit if he hadn’t had the opportunity to step back out of the rut he was in before the injury? Just how bad could that rut have gotten if he’d been the one forced to play the Steelers, Browns, Eagles, and Chargers’ defenses in consecutive weeks? It’s impossible to tell.

But of all the things to admire about J.J. McCarthy this season, mental toughness is one of them. To continue to work and improve despite so many injury setbacks, becoming the punchline of the NFL, and the team spiralling out of playoff contention is really admirable. It makes me think that the games missed would’ve been a clear net positive for the young quarterback despite their challenges.

Which makes the reality we currently face, as well as the future we project from here, contingent on a simple thing: They gotta find a way to keep this guy healthy. If McCarthy is going to remain the Vikings’ starter going forward, then, of all the areas he needs to improve, his availability needs to be at the top of his list. There’s reason for hope in the future, and perhaps in the alternate variations of our past, but they can only come true if our guy can find a way to stay upright.