What Does Minnesota's 2025 Roster Look Like If J.J. McCarthy Isn't Ready?

The only thing that's certain about the 2025 Minnesota Vikings is that nothing is certain.

On Thursday, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O'Connell will walk to a podium at the NFL Scouting Combine and toss a bunch of scenarios into the air without tipping their hand with what they will do in free agency.

It’s a routine that every NFL general manager has to master, or else they will get eaten alive during the offseason. However, they won't touch on every scenario. While Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell will hit on things about Sam Darnold’s future, upgrading the offensive line, and whether they’ve had the shrimp cocktail at St. Elmo’s, their response on J.J. McCarthy’s health may be vague at best.

Would it be nice to put fans' fears at ease if McCarthy is ready to go? Sure. But what if McCarthy isn’t ready to go? The Vikings are the only people in the world who know how close McCarthy is to becoming the starting quarterback in 2025.

If he needs more time, it could drastically shape the roster.

According to Over The Cap, the Vikings enter the offseason with $63.3 million in cap space. While that money gives them a ton of flexibility for what they want to do in free agency, it also gives them options for what they can do at quarterback.

In an ideal world, McCarthy would be healthy and open the rookie contract window. By playing on a deal with a $4.9 million cap hit for next season, the Vikings can fill their needs in free agency, assuming the players they acquire can fill a particular need.

But this could be a stretch that few Vikings fans want to consider. The last time we saw McCarthy, he looked like a high schooler who was getting ready for the Minnesota State Hockey Tournament. That will happen when you’re recovering from a major knee surgery. However, even if the Vikings training staff have him eat steak and lift twice daily, he still has to learn every detail of O’Connell’s offense and execute it on the field.

If there’s one thing we know, O’Connell isn’t going to put McCarthy on the field if he isn’t ready. If that’s the case, the quarterback wheel of destiny would start spinning like crazy.

Minnesota's first plan of action is to bring back Darnold. Spotrac projects Darnold to command $40.1 million per season on the free-agent market. Still, the Vikings can lock themselves in using the franchise tag, which Over The Cap projects to be $42.3 million, and give themselves an insurance plan heading into 2025.

However, franchise-tagging Darnold makes building a competitive team in free agency difficult. O’Connell was adamant about reinforcing the interior of the offensive line after a playoff loss to the Los Angeles Rams. The Vikings also have a need at defensive tackle and cornerback.

With four draft picks, the task becomes difficult even if the Vikings sign Trey Smith and draft Alabama’s Tyler Booker in the first round to shore up the offensive line. However, they may have to resort to a Spielman-esque strategy for whatever position they don’t go all-in on. They may have to trade down multiple times to acquire capital and throw darts in the seventh round.

The current regime hasn’t hoarded picks at the end of the draft. Instead, they’ve been able to clean up the UDFA market. Ivan Pace and Jalen Redmond are two of the better examples. Beyond that, the Vikings have been able to lure talent like Gabriel Murphy thanks to their culture and facilities.

However, it’s unlikely the Vikings want to rely on a bunch of UDFAs to save their season. If McCarthy is only out two to three weeks instead of two to three months, the Darnold situation could get awkward the moment he starts to struggle.

That leads to Plan B, or as you may call it, “The Baker Mayfield/Sam Darnold special.” General managers are always looking for the next big thing with their personnel decisions. While the Vikings may believe they have “The Next Patrick Mahomes” in McCarthy, they could be looking for “The Next Sam Darnold” in this scenario.

Once again, there’s an easy answer. The Vikings picked up Daniel Jones knowing they could keep him as a backup in 2025. However, that process could be flawed. The weakness of the 2025 quarterback class could open up more spots than expected. If a team like the Pittsburgh Steelers would rather roll with Jones than a rookie, Jones will take his lessons learned to Pittsburgh and make $15 million.

That sounds absurd, but it’s the same thing that happened with Darnold. He was considered a bust after the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers gave up on him. However, Darnold took a reboot year with the San Francisco 49ers before signing with the Vikings for $10 million last season. He played well, and now he’s the top free-agent quarterback on the market. Jones could use the same blueprint to revamp his career.

However, things get interesting if Darnold and Jones leave and McCarthy isn't ready. Considering Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers' price tags, most believe the Vikings are out on them. However, the rest of the free-agent market could be in play, including Justin Fields, who Spotrac projects will make $6.4 million.

Vikings fans may groan at that suggestion. They probably would like Jameis Winston ($6 million) even less. However, the goal isn’t to find a franchise savior. It’s to buy time until McCarthy is ready, a similar plan to last year.

Finding a McCarthy bridge would allow them to spend in free agency. They could bring in players to bolster the offensive line, add a cornerback or two, and still use their draft capital to build out the defensive line and running back. You could even switch things around by bringing in Milton Williams and drafting Booker in the first round. The Vikings would have options with that much money at their disposal.

Of course, the ideal situation is that McCarthy is healthy and ready to go in Week 1. If not, it could make Minnesota's offseason a lot more interesting and create a different kind of roster in 2025.