We're Getting A Clearer Picture Of What the Twins Should Do At the Deadline

The Minnesota Twins had the fourth-best record in the American League at last year’s trade deadline. At 54-48, they led the AL Central by one game over the Cleveland Guardians and three games over the Chicago White Sox. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine decided to get aggressive at the deadline, trading for Cincinnati Reds starter Tyler Mahle and Baltimore Orioles closer Jorge López.

ESPN gave the Twins an A- for the Mahle trade and Cincinnati a C. The Worldwide leader was even more bullish on the López trade, giving Minnesota another A- and Baltimore an F. They also sent mid-level pitching prospect Sawyer Gibson-Long to the Detroit Tigers for reliever Michael Fulmer.

Locally, most people were bullish on Minnesota’s moves. “The Twins have been fortified while their main competition in the American League Central stood still,” wrote Star Tribune columnist LaVelle E. Neal, a longtime Twins beat writer. “Now it's up to manager Rocco Baldelli to take advantage of the new talent.” Cleveland and the White Sox stood pat while Minnesota went for it. There was cause for celebration! Unfortunately, injuries piled up, and the Guardians eventually overtook the Twins in the Central. Worst yet, the Mahle and López trades haven’t worked out.

We’re halfway through the season, and Minnesota is 40-42 and leading the Central. There is still a lot of baseball left to be played, and the August 1 trade deadline is just over a month away. There’s still time for the Twins to tell us what kind of team they are. But they’ve been .500 for half the season, even with an improved pitching staff and breakouts from top prospects like Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, and Eduoard Julien. The bullpen has been shaky outside of Jhoan Durán. Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton aren’t hitting to their standard.

Falvey and Levine will have to navigate a tricky trade deadline if these trends continue. On the one hand, they need to bolster the roster for the playoffs if they’re still leading the Central. Not only do they have to ensure that they get in, but they need to field a playoff-caliber roster. It will be challenging to do that at the deadline. The Boston Red Sox have a .500 record and are in last place in the AL East, and Minnesota would be out of the playoff picture in the AL West. They’re benefitting from playing in a poor division, but they’re not taking advantage of it.

Furthermore, 12 teams will make the playoffs by winning the division or earning a wild-card spot, leaving the Twins with few options in the trade market. Trading players like Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Yennier Canó is the cost of doing business at the deadline. Minnesota has to make a move if they’re in playoff position come August unless prices are outrageous; most fans and media panned them for standing pat in 2020. But there’s an inherent risk in any trade.

Mahle had a 3.64 ERA with the Twins but only pitched in nine games. López had a 0.00 ERA as a setup man in the first month of the season, but he owns a 4.71 ERA in Minnesota. The Mahle and López trades have produced 0.4 WAR for the Twins and 3.8 for the Reds and Orioles. The Fulmer trade worked out best for Minnesota. He pitched 24 innings in a setup role and had a 3.70 ERA. However, he signed with the Chicago Cubs in the off-season and has a 4.98 ERA.

The Twins can still recoup value on the Mahle and López trades. They could re-sign Mahle, like they did with Chris Paddack and Michael Pineda, given that Mahle has been effective when healthy. And they placed López on the 15-day mental health injured list last month. In the best-case scenario, López rejoins the team in a good place mentally and pitches like he did in March and April. But teams that trade prospects for players at the deadline tend to get less value on the trade over time. Prospects are more likely to generate value as time goes on. Conversely, contenders looking to bolster their roster need the players they trade for to contribute immediately.

The Twins need to use July to figure out how good they are. They’ve taken season series from the New York Yankees and Houston Astros, the last two teams that eliminated them from the playoffs. The Twins hadn’t taken a season series from the Yankees since 2001, Tom Kelly’s final season as manager. Houston is the defending champs. However, the Tampa Bay Rays swept them during Minnesota’s five-game losing streak in early June, and the Atlanta Braves swept them to bookend the month. Tampa has the best record in the AL; Atlanta has the best record in the senior circuit.

Minnesota won’t play the AL West-leading Texas Rangers until late August. Still, they should have a pretty good idea of where they stand in the junior circuit. They’ve taken season series from the Yankees and Astros, but they sit in the middle of their respective divisions. The Rays swept them. And Cleveland and Detroit, the two closest teams in the Central, are 4-3 against the Twins this year. Minnesota will need a boost if they’re still in contention for the division at the deadline. But the front office will need to balance giving the current roster enough talent to compete and not giving up too many prospects to prop up a flawed team.