​​Was Minnesota's First Win the Start Of Something Or False Hope?

D.J. Wonnum ran like a man determined to score when he took off with Bryce Young’s fumble in the third quarter. Harrison Smith was disruptive all game and came screaming off the edge on second-and-17 with less than four minutes left in the third. Young scrambled, and Smith hit him hard enough to jar the ball loose. Wonnum had dropped a pick-six in the first half, but he scooped the ball up and took it back for six.

“He's fast, right?” Jordan Hicks said, laughing. “D.J. can run. It's exciting. We wanted to get those turnovers, game-changing plays. And that was one of them. So obviously, that kinda got the ball rolling for us.”

Wonnum reached a top speed of 18.37 mph on his 51-yard scoop and score. With that touchdown, he increased the Minnesota Vikings’ win probability by 35 percentage points. According to ESPN, the Vikings went from a 21% chance of escaping Charlotte with a win to 56%. Wonnum’s touchdown put them up 14-13, and Minnesota held on to beat the Carolina Panthers 21-13.

“It just felt good, again, to hear those guys in the locker room postgame celebrating a victory on the road,” said Kevin O’Connell, “when all our team has done all year long, regardless of the result, is just continue to trust in their preparation, continue to lean in on each other.”

The Vikings would have had some hard decisions to make if they had gone 0-4. Only the 1992 San Diego Chargers made the playoffs after losing their first four games. If they had lost, would they have tried to trade Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter and tanked for Caleb Williams or Drake Maye? They don’t have to answer that question now.

Still, they’re in a tricky spot. They welcome the Kansas City Chiefs to Minneapolis for a 3:25 p.m. game next week. Minnesota easily could be 1-4 before their Week 6 game against the Chicago Bears. The Vikings should beat the hapless Bears, but they’ve struggled at Soldier Field in the recent past. Even if Kansas City beats them and they win in Chicago, the Vikings will be 2-4 heading into a Monday night game against the San Francisco 49ers and a road game at Lambeau Field. They’re up against it to win the division and make the playoffs.

Minnesota’s original sin was losing as four-point favorites to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1. Had they won that game, they could be back at .500 with some leeway to lose 50/50 games, like their Week 3 contest against the Los Angeles Chargers. If the Vikings can survive until the mushy middle of their schedule, they will put themselves in position to win the NFC North. Ten wins is probably enough in a division with the rising Detroit Lions and Jordan Love’s Green Bay Packers. But if they fall a game or two short, they’re back at .500 and look a lot like Mike Zimmer’s final teams.

There’s a small margin between entering the playoffs with an explosive offense and just missing out, wondering what direction the team should go. On Sunday, it felt like the running game and defense meaningfully improved in Carolina, but Cousins took a step back. The Panthers gifted Minnesota with a 45-yard pass interference on Jordan Addison, which gave the Vikings a first-and-goal from the four-yard line.

But a Josh Oliver holding penalty nullified Justin Jefferson’s touchdown reception two plays later. Then Cousins threw a pick-six targeting K.J. Osborn in the flat on a pass he immediately wanted back.

Still, the Vikings fixed two major early-season holes. Harrison Smith was all over the field, recording 14 tackles, three sacks, and two tackles for loss. Flores masterfully deployed him, and Smith capitalized, culminating in his strip-sack that Wonnum scored on.

“He's a Hall of Famer,” said Camryn Bynum. “Greatest safety of all time. One of the top-five, for sure. That's what we expect out of him because he's great. And he went out there and showed that he still got it. I don't care how old people try to say he is; he's still one of the greatest in the game.”

Alexander Mattison and Cam Akers played off each other well, generating Minnesota’s best running attack through four weeks. Mattison had 95 yards and 17 carries, and Akers had 51 yards on seven touches. Akers gave Mattison a spell throughout the game, and Mattison seemed to generate extra power with his legs, pushing for extra yardage on each carry. O’Connell liked how Mattison and Akers played off each other.

Ultimately, the Vikings have a lot of work to do to get back to the playoffs. They won their first one-score game since Week 16 last year when they beat the New York Giants 27-24. Minnesota was 0-3 in one-score games since the Giants beat them 31-24 in the playoffs. Now they’re 1-3, and things seem to be coalescing. If they can reduce turnovers and Cousins, who was 12/19 for 123 yards, plays more like he did in the first two weeks, they have a winning formula.