Twins' 2023 Trio Is A Cautionary Tale For Potential Prospect Extensions

The memories of the 2023 season are still fresh in the minds of Minnesota Twins fans. They remember the excitement the Twins gave them with their first playoff win in 20 years and their first playoff series win in 21 years. But embedded in that excitement was a young core that the Twins could lean on for years to come.

The Twins had a blossoming star in Royce Lewis, and they had two solid callups in Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner. Together, they became the first rookie teammate trio in the expansion era (since 1969) to post an OPS over .839 (min. 239 plate appearances). Each was under 25, and it was a jolt of optimism for a fan base that needed it. They also argued that Minnesota should offer them a contract extension.

But fast-forward to today, and the Twins were prudent to wait on them. Wallner and Lewis never took off from their breakout seasons, and they traded Julien to the Colorado Rockies last offseason. While teams are handing out big contracts to young players, Minnesota's former trio of the future has become a cautionary tale, prompting the team to think twice about extending some of its current top prospects.

The case for the Twins extending some of their young prospects is strong. Premium free agents have become expensive, and teams that don’t have the massive payrolls of the Los Angeles Dodgers or other big market teams have become proactive to pay their young players their fair value and delay their free agent status by a few seasons.

There are many examples of teams extending unproven players this season:

• Colt Emerson: Seattle Mariners (eight years, $95 million)
• Cooper Pratt: Milwaukee Brewers (eight years, $50.75 million)
• Kevin McGonigle: Detroit Tigers (eight years, $150 million)
• And Konnor Griffin: Pittsburgh Pirates (nine years, $140 million)

All signed long-term deals either before or shortly after their major league debuts.

There have also been multiple examples over the last few years:

• Kristian Campbell (eight years, $60 million) and Roman Anthony of the Boston Red Sox (eight years, $130 million)
• Corbin Carroll: Arizona Diamondbacks (eight years, $11 million)
• Jackson Chourio: Brewers (eight years, $82 million)
• And Samuel Basallo: Baltimore Orioles (eight years, $67 million)

Each signed those contracts as they broke into the big leagues, establishing a trend for small-market teams.

When you look at the Twins, the argument becomes stronger. The franchise's financial future remains uncertain after they slashed payroll following the 2023 season and last year’s fire sale at the trade deadline. But as the team enters a new phase under Tom Pohlad, the organization is filled with prospects that they could extend early, including Walker Jenkins, Kaelen Culpepper, and Emmanuel Rodriguez.

Extending either of these players would be a wise decision because the Twins typically look for pennies in the couch cushions to sign free agents during the winter. It would also be a sign of goodwill from the latest Pohlad in charge, backing up his words to make a significant financial investment in the franchise. But while each of these would be a win, Lewis, Wallner, and Julien are a warning of what could have been.

The Twins discussed a contract extension with Lewis before the 2024 season, but the combination of his injury history and a long runway of team control tabled the conversations. Lewis’s agent, Scott Boras, also has a history of urging his players to wait until free agency to cash in big. However, he may have ultimately done the Twins a favor.

Lewis has continued to have injury issues. His performance at the plate also hasn’t been the same since hitting .309/.372/.548 with 15 homers and 52 RBI during the 2023 campaign. After hitting .233/.294/.418 with 31 homers and 107 RBI in 200 games over the past three seasons, investing heavily in Lewis would have gone about as well as the Joe Mauer contract in the 2010s. But in Mauer’s case, he was at least a future Hall of Famer. Lewis is hitting eighth for the Twins.

Strangely enough, this wasn’t the worst outcome. Wallner had been up and down through his first two seasons in MLB. However, he backed up his strong 2023 season (.249/.370/.507, 14 HR, 41 RBI) with a decent showing in 2024 (.259/.372/.523, 13 HR, 37 RBI). Although he got off to a strong start, he’s slowed down over the past two seasons, hitting .200/.306/.446 with 25 homers and 46 RBI in 122 games.

The struggles have hit a new low this season. Wallner is hitting .191/.276/.353 with three homers and six RBI in 18 games. But that’s only part of the story. Baseball Savant notes that Wallner’s whiff (45.1%) and strikeout rates (42.1%) are the worst in baseball entering Thursday. While he has a bat speed of 74.9 mph, he doesn’t square up enough to make it count at 13.9%.

However, Lewis and Wallner have been more productive than Julien. Armed with a veteran eye at the plate and surprising power, Julien hit .263/.381/.459 with 16 homers and 37 RBI in 109 games for the Twins in 2023. But he cratered in his final two years in Minnesota, hitting .208/.299/.324 with 11 homers, 33 RBI, and 163 strikeouts in 158 games.

Nobody mentions Lewis, Wallner, and Julien when teams sign prospects to mega-deals upon their arrival to the bigs. But it is a sign when things go wrong, and it’s amplified when a team is as frugal as the Twins have been.

Of course, if the Dodgers whiff on a big prospect contract, they can dismiss it and sign a veteran to replace him the following winter. But the Twins don’t have that option, leaving them saddled with a bad contract and shooting themselves in the foot to improve the team.

Maybe Jenkins, Culpepper, and Rodriguez can be the rare trio that doesn’t regress after putting on a Twins uniform. But if the Twins want to extend them, they have to be sure they’re the right players. Otherwise, it could put them at an even bigger disadvantage compared to teams with bigger checkbooks.